{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d141a208-55a3-4450-8a77-88ca16ab32a5", "symbol": "ONON", "name": "On Holding Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.478, "architecture_energy": 24.33, "architecture_maturity": 24.171, "architecture_confidence": 89.315, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.02, "rotation_up": 18.43, "upward_expansion": 3.57, "deceleration": 49.13, "rotation_down": 50.9, "downward_expansion": 74.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.874, 37.148545, 37.27481, 37.654043 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 37.55, "trend_reference": 39.055333, "distance_from_trend": -0.038544, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 41.518333, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.09558, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.999964, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.136186, "excess_performance": -0.261811, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.038544, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061816, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.09558, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044714, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.19, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120603, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.136186, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.84363, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20904245, "relative_activity": 0.735531, "balance": 1.84363, "dry_up": 0.68865, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091868, "annualized_volatility": 0.438688, "from_high_reference": -0.280651, "from_low_reference": 0.195479 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.055333, "fair_value_reference": 41.518333, "structural_low": 31.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.013362, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.017691, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.250903, "worst_return": -0.23796, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.01553, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.10755, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.206441, "worst_return": -0.220878, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.038811, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.120866, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.479218, "worst_return": -0.208778, "sufficient": false 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012967, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.100473, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0633, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.143468, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003897, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036982, 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"volume": 22565738, "typical_volume": 29200588.0, "trend": 39.798, "fair_value": 41.493269, "relative_strength": -20.465064, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.354203, "energy": 24.828683, "activity_lines": [ 36.95, 37.508364, 37.243524, 38.005591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.24, "volume": 19572299, "typical_volume": 28463594.45, "trend": 39.441, "fair_value": 41.499103, "relative_strength": -19.696327, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.163377, "energy": 26.314241, "activity_lines": [ 36.666, 37.176909, 37.192619, 37.776043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.55, "volume": 20904245, "typical_volume": 28420626.5, "trend": 39.055333, "fair_value": 41.518333, "relative_strength": -18.999964, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.478454, "energy": 24.329622, "activity_lines": [ 36.874, 37.148545, 37.27481, 37.654043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }