{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d1500be7-56db-49a2-b886-c448c69adf8d", "symbol": "BCAB", "name": "Bioatla\u00a0Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.571, "architecture_energy": 56.715, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.685, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.1, "rotation_up": 29.48, "upward_expansion": 9.11, "deceleration": 60.34, "rotation_down": 51.86, "downward_expansion": 82.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.486, 3.625909, 3.84969, 4.731849 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.46, "trend_reference": 6.564, "distance_from_trend": -0.472882, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 56.42, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.938674, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -83.999124, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.671415, "excess_performance": -0.858869, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.472882, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.627993, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.938674, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008707, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.839991, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021308, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.671415, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.920577, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 226287, "relative_activity": 0.279619, "balance": 0.920577, "dry_up": 0.217904, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.215487, "annualized_volatility": 1.21571, "from_high_reference": -0.951608, "from_low_reference": 0.108974 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.564, "fair_value_reference": 56.42, "structural_low": 3.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.069717, "positive_rate": 0.37037, "directional_follow_through": 0.62963, "median_excess_return": -0.090823, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 1.473684, "worst_return": -0.455516, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.100806, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.21991, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 1.256338, "worst_return": -0.586726, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.317204, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.509844, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.343662, "worst_return": -0.486364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.404374, "energy": 59.114645, "activity_lines": [ 3.871333, 3.834818, 4.395667, 6.031849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.95, "volume": 212562, "typical_volume": 1941557.95, "trend": 9.108667, "fair_value": 59.015385, "relative_strength": -81.908717, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.175764, "energy": 53.80677, "activity_lines": [ 3.907667, 3.839091, 4.252429, 5.626516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.37, "volume": 173924, "typical_volume": 1435395.95, "trend": 7.829667, "fair_value": 58.110705, "relative_strength": -84.055878, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.573527, "energy": 58.992851, "activity_lines": [ 3.744667, 3.754091, 4.094048, 5.25628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.29, "volume": 92599, "typical_volume": 1190198.6, "trend": 7.049, "fair_value": 57.25359, "relative_strength": -84.273531, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.674083, "energy": 60.475615, "activity_lines": [ 3.574, 3.670909, 3.951952, 4.963398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.46, "volume": 226287, "typical_volume": 809269.15, "trend": 6.564, "fair_value": 56.42, "relative_strength": -83.999124, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.571079, "energy": 56.715414, "activity_lines": [ 3.486, 3.625909, 3.84969, 4.731849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }