{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d1579e53-0ef4-4a87-8f90-0efc523047f4", "symbol": "BMEB3", "name": "Banco Mercantil do Brasil S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.031, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.291, "architecture_energy": 49.159, "architecture_maturity": 27.066, "architecture_confidence": 86.956, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.93, "rotation_up": 22.98, "upward_expansion": 8.05, "deceleration": 47.91, "rotation_down": 53.68, "downward_expansion": 81.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.498, 51.138727, 53.657619, 56.196875 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 50.860001, "trend_reference": 58.083766, "distance_from_trend": -0.124368, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.097099, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.449123, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.35661, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.172478, "excess_performance": -0.11543, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.124368, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00038, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.449123, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.295852, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.063566, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070851, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.172478, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.678534, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44000, "relative_activity": 1.7238, "balance": 1.678534, "dry_up": 1.166503, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083215, "annualized_volatility": 0.434834, "from_high_reference": -0.326268, "from_low_reference": 0.584026 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.083766, "fair_value_reference": 35.097099, "structural_low": 49.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.0499, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.000616, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.056793, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.119737, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.084215, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.131683, "worst_return": 0.113, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.21283, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.112878, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.4, "worst_return": 0.131831, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.136854, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.153125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.141429, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073846, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.402497, "energy": 70.699088, "activity_lines": [ 51.721333, 53.640182, 56.751385, 58.271415 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 51.970001, "volume": 27900, "typical_volume": 27685.0, "trend": 59.014312, "fair_value": 34.363797, "relative_strength": -4.147184, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.512337, "energy": 66.269275, "activity_lines": [ 51.659334, 53.165273, 55.957684, 57.814042 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.509998, "volume": 17000, "typical_volume": 27705.0, "trend": 58.451062, "fair_value": 34.617989, "relative_strength": -7.339126, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.933519, "energy": 62.30187, "activity_lines": [ 51.219333, 52.480545, 55.122476, 57.265377 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.05, "volume": 30200, "typical_volume": 25445.0, "trend": 58.02072, "fair_value": 34.858312, "relative_strength": -12.19682, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.759975, "energy": 59.192262, "activity_lines": [ 50.425333, 51.572182, 54.252238, 56.658857 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.860001, "volume": 44000, "typical_volume": 25525.0, "trend": 58.083766, "fair_value": 35.097099, "relative_strength": -6.35661, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.290812, "energy": 49.159022, "activity_lines": [ 50.498, 51.138727, 53.657619, 56.196875 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }