{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d15800eb-82ce-4f97-863b-3e8bd933dd43", "symbol": "AFK", "name": "Air France-KLM SA", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 53.848, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.891, "architecture_energy": 26.817, "architecture_maturity": 67.532, "architecture_confidence": 69.986, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.84, "rotation_up": 31.5, "upward_expansion": 66.93, "deceleration": 85.29, "rotation_down": 27.55, "downward_expansion": 16.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.379333, 12.591727, 11.94631, 11.492766 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.73, "trend_reference": 11.139033, "distance_from_trend": 0.142828, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.412276, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.222595, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.231218, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.058628, "excess_performance": -0.115619, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.142828, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052779, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.222595, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.261633, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.092312, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102547, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.058628, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.874289, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3579, "relative_activity": 0.186845, "balance": 1.874289, "dry_up": 0.481613, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073267, "annualized_volatility": 0.573192, "from_high_reference": -0.159736, "from_low_reference": 0.507937 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.139033, "fair_value_reference": 10.412276, "structural_low": 8.442, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.038527, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.041106, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.138329, "worst_return": -0.102404, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.030514, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.020498, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.511754, "worst_return": -0.281169, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.116798, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.131847, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.544177, "worst_return": -0.155542, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.019238, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.359479, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.363821, "worst_return": -0.402297, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.232982, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.147798, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.182339, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.062109, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.174144, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.159226, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075109, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.1924, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.065249, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", 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11.274901 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.72, "volume": 7762, "typical_volume": 20703.5, "trend": 11.0927, "fair_value": 10.440321, "relative_strength": -15.051474, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.276707, "energy": 46.051779, "activity_lines": [ 12.583667, 12.547909, 11.662157, 11.315953 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.2, "volume": 15084, "typical_volume": 19744.85, "trend": 11.0967, "fair_value": 10.424295, "relative_strength": -11.111277, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.773905, "energy": 31.128559, "activity_lines": [ 12.336667, 12.539091, 11.7852, 11.387391 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.73, "volume": 3579, "typical_volume": 19154.9, "trend": 11.139033, "fair_value": 10.412276, "relative_strength": -9.231218, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.890517, "energy": 26.817166, "activity_lines": [ 12.379333, 12.591727, 11.94631, 11.492766 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }