{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d15972c0-be3e-48fc-9e33-c4763eb9dc09", "symbol": "GICL", "name": "GLOBE INTL CARRIERS LTD", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.371, "architecture_energy": 65.997, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.785, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.24, "rotation_up": 28.35, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.69, "rotation_down": 59.09, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.991333, 18.498727, 24.804381, 29.478838 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 19.91, "trend_reference": 35.193333, "distance_from_trend": -0.434268, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 65.902426, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.697887, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -61.957781, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.564809, "excess_performance": -0.5211, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.434268, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190536, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.697887, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.305259, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.619578, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176885, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.564809, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.022814, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1092448, "relative_activity": 0.398774, "balance": 1.022814, "dry_up": 0.317459, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.192095, "annualized_volatility": 0.845069, "from_high_reference": -0.882848, "from_low_reference": 0.275464 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.193333, "fair_value_reference": 65.902426, "structural_low": 15.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.04188, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.021145, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.603659, "worst_return": -0.445671, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.125461, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.117561, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.004, "worst_return": -0.512488, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.410526, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.494887, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.636, "worst_return": 0.004674, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.623237, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.096875, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.040724, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.11215, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039679, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": 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33.172623 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.719999, "volume": 374410, "typical_volume": 2715205.85, "trend": 37.012333, "fair_value": 66.192907, "relative_strength": -69.232342, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.932797, "energy": 77.942001, "activity_lines": [ 17.379333, 20.076908, 27.312714, 31.798322 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.17, "volume": 417081, "typical_volume": 2721078.55, "trend": 36.019666, "fair_value": 66.046887, "relative_strength": -68.102882, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.645298, "energy": 68.29113, "activity_lines": [ 17.197999, 18.824181, 25.865047, 30.518172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.91, "volume": 1092448, "typical_volume": 2739514.3, "trend": 35.193333, "fair_value": 65.902426, "relative_strength": -61.957781, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.370615, "energy": 65.997394, "activity_lines": [ 17.991333, 18.498727, 24.804381, 29.478838 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }