{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d15bd475-7fef-4375-8aca-eccbfddcdd0c", "symbol": "JAVA", "name": "JPMorgan ETFs (Ireland) ICAV - US Value Active UCITS ETF USD Accumulation", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 90.752, "architecture_energy": 75.397, "architecture_maturity": 76.521, "architecture_confidence": 78.35, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.56, "rotation_up": 68.62, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 65.65, "rotation_down": 25.4, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.141334, 32.891092, 32.069286, 31.417796 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 33.735001, "trend_reference": 30.7085, "distance_from_trend": 0.098556, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.687183, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.218434, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.519416, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.122629, "excess_performance": -0.048263, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.098556, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047601, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.218434, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105713, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.015194, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029624, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.122629, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 14.423399, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8109, "relative_activity": 2.931034, "balance": 14.423399, "dry_up": 2.45771, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014753, "annualized_volatility": 0.079688, "from_high_reference": -0.00472, "from_low_reference": 0.312391 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.7085, "fair_value_reference": 27.687183, "structural_low": 28.469999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.00855, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.002212, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.053618, "worst_return": -0.028058, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.047329, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.020976, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.102371, "worst_return": 0.013769, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.061749, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.049247, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.061749, "worst_return": 0.061749, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.07469, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050496, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.126754, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-03-15", "close": 24.59, "volume": 620, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, 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"relative_strength": -4.287572, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 93.278838, "energy": 97.147205, "activity_lines": [ 31.730667, 31.179819, 30.475381, 30.161377 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 32.619999, "volume": 2757, "typical_volume": 2094.0, "trend": 29.853667, "fair_value": 27.422667, "relative_strength": -0.515424, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.385738, "energy": 96.806114, "activity_lines": [ 32.116667, 31.518364, 30.715334, 30.348602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 32.77, "volume": 479, "typical_volume": 2025.85, "trend": 29.998333, "fair_value": 27.46686, "relative_strength": -2.893901, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.518868, "energy": 95.141587, "activity_lines": [ 32.427667, 31.829091, 30.957334, 30.536753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 32.865002, "volume": 2247, "typical_volume": 1941.15, "trend": 30.142167, "fair_value": 27.511107, "relative_strength": -2.150589, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.365434, "energy": 93.318803, "activity_lines": [ 32.649667, 32.109728, 31.194119, 30.721699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.91, "volume": 917, "typical_volume": 1678.35, "trend": 30.295, "fair_value": 27.555, "relative_strength": -0.587437, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.10362, "energy": 90.975108, "activity_lines": [ 32.795001, 32.345364, 31.421643, 30.900269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.580002, "volume": 2983, "typical_volume": 1771.3, "trend": 30.4285, "fair_value": 27.595524, "relative_strength": -1.384408, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.404485, "energy": 73.360593, "activity_lines": [ 32.753001, 32.472364, 31.602572, 31.047689 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.005001, "volume": 15189, "typical_volume": 2386.15, "trend": 30.574834, "fair_value": 27.6388, "relative_strength": -0.767803, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.471686, "energy": 70.425291, "activity_lines": [ 32.838334, 32.63591, 31.810548, 31.213914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.735001, "volume": 8109, "typical_volume": 2766.6, "trend": 30.7085, "fair_value": 27.687183, "relative_strength": -1.519416, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.752357, "energy": 75.396556, "activity_lines": [ 33.141334, 32.891092, 32.069286, 31.417796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }