{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d15dfd49-460c-407d-931c-45c082b7f76c", "symbol": "GEST", "name": "Gestamp Automoci\u00f3n, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 50.517, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.065, "architecture_energy": 36.576, "architecture_maturity": 16.469, "architecture_confidence": 91.103, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.1, "rotation_up": 20.5, "upward_expansion": 4.24, "deceleration": 55.33, "rotation_down": 51.53, "downward_expansion": 77.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.924667, 2.926367, 3.008104, 3.037348 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.015, "trend_reference": 3.069717, "distance_from_trend": -0.017825, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.903042, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.038566, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.250168, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.037356, "excess_performance": -0.161787, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.017825, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003156, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.038566, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081719, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.172502, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130062, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.037356, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.847592, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1407621, "relative_activity": 1.161846, "balance": 0.847592, "dry_up": 0.936667, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048118, "annualized_volatility": 0.221474, "from_high_reference": -0.138108, "from_low_reference": 0.092391 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.069717, "fair_value_reference": 2.903042, "structural_low": 2.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.012015, "positive_rate": 0.391304, "directional_follow_through": 0.608696, "median_excess_return": -0.034253, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.162283, "worst_return": -0.124124, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.002106, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014561, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.109582, "worst_return": -0.153167, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.030485, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.049818, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.221725, "worst_return": -0.225083, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.119512, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.152191, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004787, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032011, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059815, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", 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3.106333, 3.103515 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 2.955, "volume": 421950, "typical_volume": 1424836.6, "trend": 3.081773, "fair_value": 2.934745, "relative_strength": -20.840188, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.456659, "energy": 49.260144, "activity_lines": [ 2.975345, 3.052279, 3.091188, 3.09545 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.875, "volume": 1496728, "typical_volume": 1425773.35, "trend": 3.081874, "fair_value": 2.927816, "relative_strength": -20.514034, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.453292, "energy": 61.367334, "activity_lines": [ 2.929107, 3.010088, 3.069476, 3.08211 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.84, "volume": 1000675, "typical_volume": 1371909.95, "trend": 3.078899, "fair_value": 2.920767, "relative_strength": -20.195264, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.046381, "energy": 76.317472, "activity_lines": [ 2.887178, 2.967055, 3.046036, 3.066505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.8, "volume": 967043, "typical_volume": 1287498.05, "trend": 3.07492, "fair_value": 2.912915, "relative_strength": -22.144002, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.529801, "energy": 75.559841, "activity_lines": [ 2.849896, 2.925686, 3.020481, 3.048512 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.96, "volume": 1163895, "typical_volume": 1231900.0, "trend": 3.073114, "fair_value": 2.907622, "relative_strength": -17.814068, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.097058, "energy": 56.326524, "activity_lines": [ 2.881667, 2.919217, 3.011593, 3.041098 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.015, "volume": 1407621, "typical_volume": 1211538.6, "trend": 3.069717, "fair_value": 2.903042, "relative_strength": -17.250168, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.064614, "energy": 36.575711, "activity_lines": [ 2.924667, 2.926367, 3.008104, 3.037348 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }