{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d162e9b2-8c27-4933-b883-d9f6a9babf21", "symbol": "300359", "name": "Qtone Education Group (Guangdong) Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.853, "architecture_energy": 27.271, "architecture_maturity": 99.998, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.21, "rotation_up": 29.96, "upward_expansion": 18.42, "deceleration": 44.16, "rotation_down": 36.06, "downward_expansion": 68.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.962, 3.838182, 4.042048, 4.321763 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.19, "trend_reference": 4.718667, "distance_from_trend": -0.112037, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.321282, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.212596, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.941692, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.246403, "excess_performance": -0.253803, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.112037, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108508, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.212596, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118567, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.219417, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060534, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.246403, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.322874, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 259042405, "relative_activity": 4.027747, "balance": 0.322874, "dry_up": 2.475581, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112723, "annualized_volatility": 0.467773, "from_high_reference": -0.392754, "from_low_reference": 0.281346 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.718667, "fair_value_reference": 5.321282, "structural_low": 3.27, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.024921, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.020604, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.314961, "worst_return": -0.267308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.062344, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.009274, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.631818, "worst_return": -0.228846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.017375, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.019024, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.237288, "worst_return": -0.350365, "sufficient": true }, { 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-39.331414, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.43387, "energy": 75.230508, "activity_lines": [ 3.676667, 3.861636, 4.259524, 4.56772 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.49, "volume": 76056487, "typical_volume": 43998985.75, "trend": 4.855, "fair_value": 5.363205, "relative_strength": -34.938333, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.384794, "energy": 69.205393, "activity_lines": [ 3.602, 3.754, 4.154143, 4.475871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.41, "volume": 66721951, "typical_volume": 43524925.8, "trend": 4.786, "fair_value": 5.345577, "relative_strength": -35.712667, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.91901, "energy": 67.812881, "activity_lines": [ 3.528, 3.659818, 4.052429, 4.382645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.41, "volume": 235041980, "typical_volume": 53233419.95, "trend": 4.757667, "fair_value": 5.334103, "relative_strength": -14.660616, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.175225, "energy": 41.001212, "activity_lines": [ 3.81, 3.768909, 4.055524, 4.358387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.19, "volume": 259042405, "typical_volume": 64314473.6, "trend": 4.718667, "fair_value": 5.321282, "relative_strength": -21.941692, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.852593, "energy": 27.270628, "activity_lines": [ 3.962, 3.838182, 4.042048, 4.321763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }