{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d16d999b-4287-4170-b50e-1d3d143e3cc8", "symbol": "ERY", "name": "DIREXION DAILY ENERGY BEAR 2X ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.224, "architecture_energy": 49.874, "architecture_maturity": 9.049, "architecture_confidence": 75.031, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.53, "rotation_up": 11.62, "upward_expansion": 9.36, "deceleration": 41.32, "rotation_down": 66.54, "downward_expansion": 78.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.832, 11.396056, 11.516433, 11.637894 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.12, "trend_reference": 12.19455, "distance_from_trend": -0.088117, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.442352, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.456031, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.110119, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.194631, "excess_performance": -0.320256, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.088117, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17687, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.456031, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015938, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.371101, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041136, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.194631, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.978408, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5724814, "relative_activity": 0.43095, "balance": 0.978408, "dry_up": 0.414993, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103492, "annualized_volatility": 0.525808, "from_high_reference": -0.513471, "from_low_reference": 0.161964 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.19455, "fair_value_reference": 20.442352, "structural_low": 9.57, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.013955, "positive_rate": 0.475, "directional_follow_through": 0.525, "median_excess_return": -0.016271, "regime_survival": 0.825, "best_return": 0.308622, "worst_return": -0.364532, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.084939, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.152165, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.129538, "worst_return": -0.455457, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.109976, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.229285, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.244295, "worst_return": -0.448694, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 11.05, "volume": 5067610, "typical_volume": 14225297.4, "trend": 13.038755, "fair_value": 20.700011, "relative_strength": -38.247994, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.853508, "energy": 13.662827, "activity_lines": [ 12.092418, 12.007853, 11.784514, 12.044703 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.37, "volume": 4648901, "typical_volume": 14017795.65, "trend": 12.711273, "fair_value": 20.606716, "relative_strength": -40.773732, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.59375, "energy": 29.511132, "activity_lines": [ 11.420667, 11.752536, 11.662968, 11.872525 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.38, "volume": 6610043, "typical_volume": 13985183.1, "trend": 12.425513, "fair_value": 20.51713, "relative_strength": -40.297608, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.950774, "energy": 46.339179, "activity_lines": [ 10.924667, 11.504542, 11.551221, 11.72212 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.12, "volume": 5724814, "typical_volume": 13284176.0, "trend": 12.19455, "fair_value": 20.442352, "relative_strength": -37.110119, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.223825, "energy": 49.874358, "activity_lines": [ 10.832, 11.396056, 11.516433, 11.637894 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }