{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d1711dcb-2793-4180-8515-d886a868b989", "symbol": "MOOD", "name": "RELATIVE SENTIMENT TACTICAL ALLOCATION ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 62.675, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.351, "architecture_energy": 32.534, "architecture_maturity": 30.837, "architecture_confidence": 49.067, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.35, "rotation_up": 37.76, "upward_expansion": 72.38, "deceleration": 71.05, "rotation_down": 26.35, "downward_expansion": 3.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.70326, 43.667471, 43.464709, 43.068895 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 44.0149, "trend_reference": 42.601973, "distance_from_trend": 0.033166, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.513725, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.353733, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.738095, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.060843, "excess_performance": -0.126611, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.033166, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047294, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.353733, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047326, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037381, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005483, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.060843, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.788851, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 83837, "relative_activity": 1.004734, "balance": 1.788851, "dry_up": 0.861979, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021142, "annualized_volatility": 0.117881, "from_high_reference": -0.019494, "from_low_reference": 0.309647 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.601973, "fair_value_reference": 32.513725, "structural_low": 39.88, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.022589, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.059972, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.0534, "worst_return": 0.020856, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.052924, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.098409, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.071159, "worst_return": 0.03469, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.07469, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.061584, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.07469, "worst_return": 0.07469, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"direction": 57.500491, "energy": 42.981028, "activity_lines": [ 43.623633, 43.563158, 42.992537, 42.574176 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 43.815, "volume": 60621, "typical_volume": 101801.3, "trend": 41.982835, "fair_value": 32.049447, "relative_strength": -4.145548, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.31439, "energy": 41.270501, "activity_lines": [ 43.694353, 43.633189, 43.109355, 42.705021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 43.4631, "volume": 66971, "typical_volume": 87724.7, "trend": 42.157879, "fair_value": 32.162948, "relative_strength": -0.876894, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.291574, "energy": 28.384054, "activity_lines": [ 43.600827, 43.617696, 43.187337, 42.800522 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.5408, "volume": 70581, "typical_volume": 84389.05, "trend": 42.30013, "fair_value": 32.276241, "relative_strength": 0.79425, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.071355, "energy": 27.491994, "activity_lines": [ 43.559107, 43.615456, 43.273464, 42.889743 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.5277, "volume": 66312, "typical_volume": 83372.2, "trend": 42.465613, "fair_value": 32.392716, "relative_strength": 0.104509, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.422035, "energy": 25.158257, "activity_lines": [ 43.560133, 43.598396, 43.35112, 42.968941 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.0149, "volume": 83837, "typical_volume": 83442.0, "trend": 42.601973, "fair_value": 32.513725, "relative_strength": -3.738095, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.350938, "energy": 32.534462, "activity_lines": [ 43.70326, 43.667471, 43.464709, 43.068895 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }