{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d196f269-75cd-460e-a3db-7f84c1fab07d", "symbol": "4538", "name": "WINSON Machinery Co., LTD.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 69.302, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.093, "architecture_energy": 29.563, "architecture_maturity": 43.139, "architecture_confidence": 65.087, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.26, "rotation_up": 14.22, "upward_expansion": 15.45, "deceleration": 69.62, "rotation_down": 62.1, "downward_expansion": 40.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.496667, 17.89, 17.963108, 17.901715 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 17.5, "trend_reference": 17.736355, "distance_from_trend": -0.013326, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.515129, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.000864, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -27.411638, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.035782, "excess_performance": -0.40559, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013326, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041536, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.000864, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017396, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.274116, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03954, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.035782, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.413334, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 114182, "relative_activity": 0.713245, "balance": 4.413334, "dry_up": 0.581814, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042104, "annualized_volatility": 0.148353, "from_high_reference": -0.122807, "from_low_reference": 0.12736 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.736355, "fair_value_reference": 17.515129, "structural_low": 16.706149, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.010034, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.02977, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.260143, "worst_return": -0.11248, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.001652, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.032408, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.131579, "worst_return": -0.195314, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.01494, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.145851, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.010917, "worst_return": -0.089434, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.017577, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057831, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.053708, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.041658, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037791, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", 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"trend": 17.550678, "fair_value": 17.56717, "relative_strength": -21.463295, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.806214, "energy": 41.86166, "activity_lines": [ 18.643334, 18.521979, 18.170491, 17.956086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.4, "volume": 110233, "typical_volume": 172310.85, "trend": 17.602202, "fair_value": 17.552604, "relative_strength": -26.936669, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.544993, "energy": 11.819527, "activity_lines": [ 18.206667, 18.362159, 18.113447, 17.946365 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.35, "volume": 64000, "typical_volume": 162439.25, "trend": 17.647326, "fair_value": 17.541742, "relative_strength": -25.355889, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.56758, "energy": 15.978405, "activity_lines": [ 17.85, 18.191818, 18.054421, 17.930094 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.4, "volume": 84151, "typical_volume": 160231.95, "trend": 17.69254, "fair_value": 17.529859, "relative_strength": -26.11788, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.411336, "energy": 24.177742, "activity_lines": [ 17.613333, 18.030909, 18.003175, 17.914137 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 17.5, "volume": 114182, "typical_volume": 160088.0, "trend": 17.736355, "fair_value": 17.515129, "relative_strength": -27.411638, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.093497, "energy": 29.563189, "activity_lines": [ 17.496667, 17.89, 17.963108, 17.901715 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }