{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d19ea97f-dd14-4b2f-bcfa-83cdbd0a97e6", "symbol": "CINV", "name": "CI Global Alpha Innovators ETF C$ Series", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.41, "architecture_energy": 62.879, "architecture_maturity": 78.744, "architecture_confidence": 68.767, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.99, "rotation_up": 51.64, "upward_expansion": 81.85, "deceleration": 71.32, "rotation_down": 28.86, "downward_expansion": 10.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.369333, 37.212363, 36.255857, 35.110881 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 38.700001, "trend_reference": 33.982333, "distance_from_trend": 0.138827, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.561474, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.456997, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.574141, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.212026, "excess_performance": 0.091605, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.138827, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035594, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.456997, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084133, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.025741, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06624, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.212026, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.436825, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 130, "relative_activity": 0.029224, "balance": 1.436825, "dry_up": 0.187369, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029338, "annualized_volatility": 0.207073, "from_high_reference": -0.002577, "from_low_reference": 0.344684 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.982333, "fair_value_reference": 26.561474, "structural_low": 28.780001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.021196, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.003509, "regime_survival": 0.766667, "best_return": 0.144163, "worst_return": -0.135905, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.047962, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.039613, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.220824, "worst_return": -0.211991, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.087377, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.0037, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.279376, "worst_return": -0.07499, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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36.058, 35.064546, 33.473191, 33.155742 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 37.259998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5254.15, "trend": 33.107333, "fair_value": 25.634872, "relative_strength": 2.154326, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.723425, "energy": 92.458689, "activity_lines": [ 36.6, 35.630727, 33.909428, 33.434408 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 36.169998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5233.5, "trend": 33.187667, "fair_value": 25.761346, "relative_strength": -0.784716, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.630761, "energy": 84.095144, "activity_lines": [ 36.569332, 35.883454, 34.223381, 33.632 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 37.529999, "volume": 204, "typical_volume": 5243.7, "trend": 33.317667, "fair_value": 25.896538, "relative_strength": 2.182337, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.975795, "energy": 70.695007, "activity_lines": [ 36.889332, 36.315636, 34.646666, 33.91215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 37.950001, "volume": 1620, "typical_volume": 5163.4, "trend": 33.483, "fair_value": 26.034744, "relative_strength": 3.149954, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.122233, "energy": 76.666334, "activity_lines": [ 37.257333, 36.738363, 35.083285, 34.211011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.849998, "volume": 902, "typical_volume": 5187.25, "trend": 33.611666, "fair_value": 26.165897, "relative_strength": 0.379923, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.275231, "energy": 64.131067, "activity_lines": [ 37.215999, 36.87109, 35.385095, 34.428236 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.849998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5163.6, "trend": 33.731333, "fair_value": 26.293974, "relative_strength": 0.165771, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.173052, "energy": 63.994567, "activity_lines": [ 37.115332, 36.954181, 35.664285, 34.637161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.209999, "volume": 2302, "typical_volume": 5116.95, "trend": 33.836, "fair_value": 26.419743, "relative_strength": -0.96663, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.958682, "energy": 52.357312, "activity_lines": [ 36.828665, 36.871272, 35.854333, 34.797075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.700001, "volume": 130, "typical_volume": 4448.45, "trend": 33.982333, "fair_value": 26.561474, "relative_strength": 2.574141, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.410269, "energy": 62.879419, "activity_lines": [ 37.369333, 37.212363, 36.255857, 35.110881 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }