{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d1a5d86e-a8e6-432a-b832-af17e0308f8a", "symbol": "300643", "name": "Hamaton Automotive Technology Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 86.509, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.15, "architecture_energy": 8.658, "architecture_maturity": 17.538, "architecture_confidence": 61.146, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.37, "rotation_up": 25.93, "upward_expansion": 22.42, "deceleration": 31.54, "rotation_down": 35.54, "downward_expansion": 56.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.993334, 18.013636, 17.874335, 18.045053 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 18.450001, "trend_reference": 18.463383, "distance_from_trend": -0.000725, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.327551, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.203715, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.400389, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.032126, "excess_performance": -0.039526, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000725, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024558, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.203715, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039758, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104004, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.177888, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.032126, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.017365, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41013696, "relative_activity": 1.532119, "balance": 1.017365, "dry_up": 2.100266, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119049, "annualized_volatility": 0.620366, "from_high_reference": -0.317543, "from_low_reference": 0.229181 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.463383, "fair_value_reference": 15.327551, "structural_low": 15.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.00394, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": 0.016229, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.381263, "worst_return": -0.257499, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.070542, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.00156, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.547199, "worst_return": -0.172632, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.15832, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.067743, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.957423, "worst_return": -0.170886, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.089782, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.125486, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.510763, "worst_return": -0.13008, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.24159, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040126, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067877, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03276, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036838, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.619755, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.205897, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038766, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.124348, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021664, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.104797, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.257499, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.082617, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007646, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 12.65914, "volume": 34773772, "typical_volume": 28687402.2, "trend": 13.138077, "fair_value": 12.730551, "relative_strength": -7.263295, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": 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decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.321255, "energy": 16.769308, "activity_lines": [ 17.735333, 17.731755, 17.737, 18.084208 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.9, "volume": 83976800, "typical_volume": 29603340.85, "trend": 18.561267, "fair_value": 15.283302, "relative_strength": -1.864346, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.884138, "energy": 5.696327, "activity_lines": [ 18.360666, 18.118084, 17.919319, 18.173376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.610001, "volume": 63914820, "typical_volume": 27768218.4, "trend": 18.487743, "fair_value": 15.296063, "relative_strength": -15.829285, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.38294, "energy": 19.155954, "activity_lines": [ 17.797333, 17.884545, 17.795358, 18.047488 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.450001, "volume": 41013696, "typical_volume": 26769266.2, "trend": 18.463383, "fair_value": 15.327551, "relative_strength": -10.400389, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.150381, "energy": 8.658426, "activity_lines": [ 17.993334, 18.013636, 17.874335, 18.045053 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }