{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d1af759c-5319-48e8-bf5f-dd9977e9f5e3", "symbol": "002749", "name": "Sichuan Guoguang Agrochemical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.058, "architecture_energy": 33.807, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.944, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.61, "rotation_up": 27.75, "upward_expansion": 18.63, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 32.02, "downward_expansion": 66.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.607333, 8.458364, 8.891214, 9.373934 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.61, "trend_reference": 9.971782, "distance_from_trend": -0.136564, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.351771, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.168258, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.187707, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.247295, "excess_performance": -0.254695, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.136564, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09047, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.168258, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173786, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.231877, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047609, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.247295, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.866538, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22408537, "relative_activity": 1.781383, "balance": 0.866538, "dry_up": 1.923031, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071302, "annualized_volatility": 0.250627, "from_high_reference": -0.344428, "from_low_reference": 0.108108 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.971782, "fair_value_reference": 10.351771, "structural_low": 7.77, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.025828, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -7e-05, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.135381, "worst_return": -0.144086, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.067778, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.002785, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.288966, "worst_return": -0.220418, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.062874, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.07652, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.108889, "worst_return": -0.228742, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.91, "volume": 33268718, "typical_volume": 12633111.1, "trend": 10.047567, "fair_value": 10.34829, "relative_strength": -17.18542, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.980931, "energy": 45.639268, "activity_lines": [ 8.536667, 8.446545, 8.97362, 9.46668 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.61, "volume": 22408537, "typical_volume": 12579294.25, "trend": 9.971782, "fair_value": 10.351771, "relative_strength": -23.187707, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.05792, "energy": 33.807478, "activity_lines": [ 8.607333, 8.458364, 8.891214, 9.373934 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }