{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d1af9e8a-67d5-49ec-a104-e78ceb45f6fc", "symbol": "NAR", "name": "Northamber plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.428, "architecture_energy": 41.631, "architecture_maturity": 51.046, "architecture_confidence": 92.309, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.1, "rotation_up": 20.93, "upward_expansion": 5.11, "deceleration": 55.33, "rotation_down": 51.31, "downward_expansion": 76.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.238, 0.240182, 0.248694, 0.257455 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.245, "trend_reference": 0.270204, "distance_from_trend": -0.093276, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.32873, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.254707, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.360097, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.20096, "excess_performance": -0.252195, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.093276, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070588, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.254707, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049718, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.203601, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050622, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.20096, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.163258, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8812, "relative_activity": 0.473324, "balance": 0.163258, "dry_up": 1.315957, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084804, "annualized_volatility": 0.228724, "from_high_reference": -0.305528, "from_low_reference": 0.113636 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.270204, "fair_value_reference": 0.32873, "structural_low": 0.22, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.358974, "directional_follow_through": 0.410256, "median_excess_return": -0.002445, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.160713, "worst_return": -0.117645, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.023809, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.00124, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.16667, "worst_return": -0.197279, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.022284, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.066851, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.243244, "worst_return": -0.209716, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"trend": 0.277988, "fair_value": 0.331862, "relative_strength": -26.553835, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.015364, "energy": 64.563223, "activity_lines": [ 0.239, 0.244909, 0.255372, 0.26457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.225, "volume": 20279, "typical_volume": 17580.25, "trend": 0.274872, "fair_value": 0.330733, "relative_strength": -26.855489, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.56615, "energy": 74.486796, "activity_lines": [ 0.233, 0.240273, 0.251614, 0.261151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.245, "volume": 29476, "typical_volume": 18547.25, "trend": 0.272422, "fair_value": 0.329731, "relative_strength": -20.708548, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.360133, "energy": 53.453432, "activity_lines": [ 0.235333, 0.240091, 0.250055, 0.259224 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.245, "volume": 8812, "typical_volume": 18617.25, "trend": 0.270204, "fair_value": 0.32873, "relative_strength": -20.360097, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.427607, "energy": 41.6314, "activity_lines": [ 0.238, 0.240182, 0.248694, 0.257455 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }