{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d1b241db-c137-4a4d-b9b6-9f39c43aac85", "symbol": "300203", "name": "Focused Photonics (Hangzhou), Inc.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.84, "architecture_energy": 51.366, "architecture_maturity": 29.621, "architecture_confidence": 89.628, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.02, "rotation_up": 14.61, "upward_expansion": 9.44, "deceleration": 41.45, "rotation_down": 63.53, "downward_expansion": 85.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.083333, 12.392182, 12.843143, 13.258021 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 12.65, "trend_reference": 13.982, "distance_from_trend": -0.095265, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.648873, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.191635, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.753259, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.180699, "excess_performance": -0.188099, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.095265, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071025, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.191635, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058924, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.217533, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.135646, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.180699, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.954279, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36174019, "relative_activity": 0.772514, "balance": 0.954279, "dry_up": 0.864402, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119368, "annualized_volatility": 0.445314, "from_high_reference": -0.440018, "from_low_reference": 0.146872 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.982, "fair_value_reference": 15.648873, "structural_low": 11.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.032023, "positive_rate": 0.366667, "directional_follow_through": 0.633333, "median_excess_return": -0.039664, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.952991, "worst_return": -0.212698, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.087271, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.0783, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.566222, "worst_return": -0.334603, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.220777, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.153369, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.035556, "worst_return": -0.411355, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"down", "direction": -56.823309, "energy": 29.244715, "activity_lines": [ 13.081333, 13.162364, 13.422476, 13.873161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.61, "volume": 44844739, "typical_volume": 45955843.65, "trend": 14.381667, "fair_value": 15.778518, "relative_strength": -28.24946, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.062767, "energy": 37.69648, "activity_lines": [ 12.596, 12.845273, 13.220286, 13.685333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.61, "volume": 48660955, "typical_volume": 46346600.65, "trend": 14.242667, "fair_value": 15.732379, "relative_strength": -27.597434, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.649543, "energy": 54.588546, "activity_lines": [ 12.172667, 12.574545, 13.040048, 13.506516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.83, "volume": 32227457, "typical_volume": 46247836.25, "trend": 14.089, "fair_value": 15.687649, "relative_strength": -24.026908, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.383331, "energy": 60.886936, "activity_lines": [ 11.918667, 12.378182, 12.896238, 13.35086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.65, "volume": 36174019, "typical_volume": 46826356.0, "trend": 13.982, "fair_value": 15.648873, "relative_strength": -21.753259, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.839587, "energy": 51.366042, "activity_lines": [ 12.083333, 12.392182, 12.843143, 13.258021 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }