{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d1b8fa04-758f-4306-aa17-11ceea52cdb2", "symbol": "TR7A", "name": "INVESCO MARKETS II PLC IVZ US T", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 74.806, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.717, "architecture_energy": 33.652, "architecture_maturity": 18.165, "architecture_confidence": 91.795, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.77, "rotation_up": 15.74, "upward_expansion": 4.75, "deceleration": 45.62, "rotation_down": 50.31, "downward_expansion": 75.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.027333, 44.069454, 44.089119, 44.136629 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 44.105, "trend_reference": 44.196166, "distance_from_trend": -0.002063, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 42.554089, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.036446, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.880404, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.004346, "excess_performance": -0.055581, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002063, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000473, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.036446, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007933, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.078804, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028912, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.004346, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.80323, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43022, "relative_activity": 1.814696, "balance": 0.80323, "dry_up": 0.7658, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005329, "annualized_volatility": 0.034015, "from_high_reference": -0.016214, "from_low_reference": 0.019474 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.196166, "fair_value_reference": 42.554089, "structural_low": 43.702499, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.020456, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.00034, "worst_return": -0.00034, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.009518, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007282, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000285, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", 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44.182586 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 44.177502, "volume": 5365, "typical_volume": 26043.1, "trend": 44.214083, "fair_value": 42.520079, "relative_strength": -5.964136, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.620398, "energy": 18.127607, "activity_lines": [ 44.162167, 44.120227, 44.133083, 44.180064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.93, "volume": 8439, "typical_volume": 26344.05, "trend": 44.208166, "fair_value": 42.531181, "relative_strength": -7.424915, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.356578, "energy": 27.59109, "activity_lines": [ 44.086501, 44.094727, 44.111095, 44.161736 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.912498, "volume": 15795, "typical_volume": 27121.55, "trend": 44.1985, "fair_value": 42.541973, "relative_strength": -8.290697, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.267447, "energy": 41.924354, "activity_lines": [ 44.011166, 44.065045, 44.090166, 44.142661 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.105, "volume": 43022, "typical_volume": 23707.55, "trend": 44.196166, "fair_value": 42.554089, "relative_strength": -7.880404, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.716913, "energy": 33.652351, "activity_lines": [ 44.027333, 44.069454, 44.089119, 44.136629 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }