{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d1bd51cf-3661-4c04-97c6-591fa84d373e", "symbol": "DXUSH", "name": "Ailis D-X MSCI USA Screened UCITS ETF XH EUR Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 78.604, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.052, "architecture_energy": 56.676, "architecture_maturity": 62.212, "architecture_confidence": 61.563, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.34, "rotation_up": 50.97, "upward_expansion": 79.4, "deceleration": 69.36, "rotation_down": 27.86, "downward_expansion": 8.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.469533, 6.440818, 6.385643, 6.260331 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.656, "trend_reference": 6.124133, "distance_from_trend": 0.086848, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.609998, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.186453, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.815471, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.125085, "excess_performance": -0.045807, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086848, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028534, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.186453, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032245, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.048155, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019494, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.125085, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.926653, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 168847, "relative_activity": 0.451973, "balance": 2.926653, "dry_up": 0.393743, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020421, "annualized_volatility": 0.144602, "from_high_reference": -0.002548, "from_low_reference": 0.229178 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.124133, "fair_value_reference": 5.609998, "structural_low": 5.415, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.015505, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.006185, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.026527, "worst_return": 0.002985, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049031, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032127, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.045555, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-04", "close": 5.011, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, 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"energy": 54.20401, "activity_lines": [ 6.421067, 6.419836, 6.304567, 6.189748 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.365, "volume": 135508, "typical_volume": 428600.95, "trend": 6.0903, "fair_value": 5.591251, "relative_strength": -5.947862, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.929855, "energy": 47.98228, "activity_lines": [ 6.404733, 6.409891, 6.325929, 6.208258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.345, "volume": 147291, "typical_volume": 400237.3, "trend": 6.103567, "fair_value": 5.599102, "relative_strength": -6.711257, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.925509, "energy": 38.569673, "activity_lines": [ 6.386533, 6.396327, 6.342581, 6.22469 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.656, "volume": 168847, "typical_volume": 373577.8, "trend": 6.124133, "fair_value": 5.609998, "relative_strength": -4.815471, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.052314, "energy": 56.67559, "activity_lines": [ 6.469533, 6.440818, 6.385643, 6.260331 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }