{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d1c7620a-1fd0-44b5-bfb4-6dcc11375e21", "symbol": "MLCO", "name": "Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.634, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.462, "architecture_energy": 12.102, "architecture_maturity": 15.107, "architecture_confidence": 59.552, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.26, "rotation_up": 26.23, "upward_expansion": 18.06, "deceleration": 40.78, "rotation_down": 29.34, "downward_expansion": 54.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.542667, 5.505818, 5.514333, 5.558409 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.52, "trend_reference": 5.665333, "distance_from_trend": -0.025653, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.079808, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.220318, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -31.039857, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.130709, "excess_performance": -0.318162, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025653, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138483, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.220318, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078004, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.310399, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088739, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.130709, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.007868, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8613626, "relative_activity": 0.817744, "balance": 1.007868, "dry_up": 0.971226, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071409, "annualized_volatility": 0.322996, "from_high_reference": -0.456158, "from_low_reference": 0.088757 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.665333, "fair_value_reference": 7.079808, "structural_low": 5.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.078203, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.266667, "median_excess_return": -0.063533, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.399689, "worst_return": -0.276685, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.076722, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.142431, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.73454, "worst_return": -0.508993, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.337465, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.488089, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.92006, "worst_return": -0.517986, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.130396, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.074942, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.202247, "worst_return": -0.251962, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048469, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.067416, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032415, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.127273, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.180088, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.154696, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063228, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.102888, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.146497, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.015187, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030496, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.16771, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.065253, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.59, "volume": 13877576, "typical_volume": 14995816.5, "trend": 12.5505, "fair_value": 12.297212, "relative_strength": -14.38961, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": 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26140523, "typical_volume": 10506477.85, "trend": 5.933667, "fair_value": 7.266859, "relative_strength": -35.176, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.051408, "energy": 29.425224, "activity_lines": [ 5.443333, 5.477273, 5.522, 5.631828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.45, "volume": 16350173, "typical_volume": 10712412.4, "trend": 5.849, "fair_value": 7.21859, "relative_strength": -31.935409, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.19008, "energy": 28.127346, "activity_lines": [ 5.442, 5.472182, 5.510714, 5.600624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.41, "volume": 8667862, "typical_volume": 10477627.15, "trend": 5.762333, "fair_value": 7.167051, "relative_strength": -30.410411, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.611649, "energy": 26.418485, "activity_lines": [ 5.430667, 5.458364, 5.497952, 5.572301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.73, "volume": 7289598, "typical_volume": 10393143.3, "trend": 5.703, "fair_value": 7.121346, "relative_strength": -25.73722, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.016164, "energy": 9.0031, "activity_lines": [ 5.534, 5.504364, 5.516476, 5.570215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.52, "volume": 8613626, "typical_volume": 10533400.3, "trend": 5.665333, "fair_value": 7.079808, "relative_strength": -31.039857, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.462413, "energy": 12.101735, "activity_lines": [ 5.542667, 5.505818, 5.514333, 5.558409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }