{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d1c7922c-578b-4708-9608-edd4258a363d", "symbol": "ARQ", "name": "Arq Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.061, "architecture_energy": 68.545, "architecture_maturity": 25.471, "architecture_confidence": 85.455, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.65, "rotation_up": 9.98, "upward_expansion": 14.76, "deceleration": 38.12, "rotation_down": 73.78, "downward_expansion": 90.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.053, 2.186545, 2.330429, 2.425914 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.08, "trend_reference": 2.661167, "distance_from_trend": -0.218388, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.58, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.545852, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -53.919499, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.409091, "excess_performance": -0.596545, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.218388, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131379, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.545852, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128176, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.539195, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011075, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.409091, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.511118, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1170804, "relative_activity": 0.628369, "balance": 0.511118, "dry_up": 0.582816, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.150251, "annualized_volatility": 0.944074, "from_high_reference": -0.736375, "from_low_reference": 0.350649 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.661167, "fair_value_reference": 4.58, "structural_low": 1.54, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.025442, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.004435, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.358974, "worst_return": -0.287179, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.021455, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.096065, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.395833, "worst_return": -0.426866, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.203728, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.251346, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.885154, "worst_return": -0.341513, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.112727, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.066398, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.176707, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.282723, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052774, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013373, 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-54.711026, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.505383, "energy": 71.533136, "activity_lines": [ 2.147, 2.326909, 2.397476, 2.517462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.97, "volume": 1016237, "typical_volume": 2056205.25, "trend": 2.711833, "fair_value": 4.580385, "relative_strength": -55.32911, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.942289, "energy": 72.15032, "activity_lines": [ 2.069333, 2.242273, 2.358833, 2.466677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.08, "volume": 1170804, "typical_volume": 1863242.35, "trend": 2.661167, "fair_value": 4.58, "relative_strength": -53.919499, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.061343, "energy": 68.544594, "activity_lines": [ 2.053, 2.186545, 2.330429, 2.425914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }