{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d1ccf406-7ef3-46a1-9dbc-c01f7026442f", "symbol": "PAVM", "name": "PAVmed Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.425, "architecture_energy": 51.071, "architecture_maturity": 69.228, "architecture_confidence": 90.353, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.11, "rotation_up": 26.14, "upward_expansion": 8.17, "deceleration": 58.35, "rotation_down": 49.21, "downward_expansion": 79.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.011333, 5.175, 5.802271, 6.652363 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.74, "trend_reference": 7.592773, "distance_from_trend": -0.375722, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 38.437578, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.876683, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -56.327749, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.561111, "excess_performance": -0.748565, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.375722, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150957, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.876683, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011929, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.563277, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035326, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.561111, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.693432, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29723, "relative_activity": 0.392149, "balance": 0.693432, "dry_up": 0.706957, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.231173, "annualized_volatility": 0.582412, "from_high_reference": -0.833333, "from_low_reference": 0.231169 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.592773, "fair_value_reference": 38.437578, "structural_low": 3.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 49, "median_return": -0.052239, "positive_rate": 0.387755, "directional_follow_through": 0.591837, "median_excess_return": -0.066594, "regime_survival": 0.877551, "best_return": 0.285714, "worst_return": -0.45283, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.236638, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.336093, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.28375, "worst_return": -0.613527, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.380319, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.468994, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": -0.17, "worst_return": -0.690063, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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5.645836, 6.858395, 7.523991 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.6, "volume": 58051, "typical_volume": 89475.2, "trend": 7.999307, "fair_value": 42.459357, "relative_strength": -53.715647, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.398875, "energy": 57.10528, "activity_lines": [ 5.420667, 5.551687, 6.64369, 7.35995 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.925, "volume": 76362, "typical_volume": 82722.1, "trend": 7.888407, "fair_value": 41.357915, "relative_strength": -47.459299, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.772447, "energy": 43.787975, "activity_lines": [ 5.627667, 5.569902, 6.478365, 7.226124 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.74, "volume": 87235, "typical_volume": 80497.55, "trend": 7.757107, "fair_value": 40.310896, "relative_strength": -56.0342, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.404234, "energy": 48.282695, "activity_lines": [ 5.378, 5.395116, 6.219969, 7.023001 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.95, "volume": 21016, "typical_volume": 77592.35, "trend": 7.677773, "fair_value": 39.297098, "relative_strength": -53.114558, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.976879, "energy": 47.296668, "activity_lines": [ 5.226333, 5.291058, 6.00862, 6.841897 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.74, "volume": 29723, "typical_volume": 75795.25, "trend": 7.592773, "fair_value": 38.437578, "relative_strength": -56.327749, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.425105, "energy": 51.070809, "activity_lines": [ 5.011333, 5.175, 5.802271, 6.652363 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }