{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d1d6aea5-e649-4c4e-b97c-4512b725b5b4", "symbol": "XMCJ", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Japan UCITS ETF 7C CHF Hedged", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.34, "architecture_energy": 29.845, "architecture_maturity": 61.799, "architecture_confidence": 90.791, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.43, "rotation_up": 34.82, "upward_expansion": 61.65, "deceleration": 85.49, "rotation_down": 27.43, "downward_expansion": 20.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.808, 39.958636, 39.456524, 38.756021 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 40.459999, "trend_reference": 37.921667, "distance_from_trend": 0.066936, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.889908, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.400489, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.1844, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.090566, "excess_performance": 0.007683, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066936, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06084, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.400489, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004794, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.031844, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106335, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.090566, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 22.316677, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 554, "relative_activity": 0.032684, "balance": 22.316677, "dry_up": 0.08, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028699, "annualized_volatility": 0.198238, "from_high_reference": -0.02176, "from_low_reference": 0.370364 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.921667, "fair_value_reference": 28.889908, "structural_low": 34.564999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.05098, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.00828, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.072199, "worst_return": -0.035418, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.088126, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.028501, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.159586, "worst_return": -0.075845, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.043549, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.005403, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.20136, "worst_return": -0.036075, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.018172, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001891, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011929, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004867, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.085577, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.031326, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.268279, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.078206, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.061037, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 21.004999, "volume": 950, "typical_volume": 6201.35, "trend": 19.849667, "fair_value": 17.863859, "relative_strength": 12.94119, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", 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"relative_strength": 1.262861, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.98729, "energy": 52.305262, "activity_lines": [ 40.015666, 39.922182, 38.991357, 38.31271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.880001, "volume": 1850, "typical_volume": 18536.1, "trend": 37.563167, "fair_value": 28.655549, "relative_strength": 3.692388, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.994236, "energy": 41.243138, "activity_lines": [ 39.871667, 39.962455, 39.16931, 38.475237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.200001, "volume": 2490, "typical_volume": 18324.05, "trend": 37.744667, "fair_value": 28.769492, "relative_strength": 1.568063, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.240313, "energy": 29.268281, "activity_lines": [ 39.596334, 39.850818, 39.261714, 38.580839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.459999, "volume": 554, "typical_volume": 16949.95, "trend": 37.921667, "fair_value": 28.889908, "relative_strength": 3.1844, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.339618, "energy": 29.84455, "activity_lines": [ 39.808, 39.958636, 39.456524, 38.756021 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }