{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d1db8721-5589-41da-b437-c1c6e21c2541", "symbol": "600477", "name": "Hang Xiao Steel Structure Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.607, "architecture_energy": 62.505, "architecture_maturity": 81.471, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 28.78, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.9, "rotation_down": 53.31, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.364, 2.378945, 2.543881, 2.739054 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.4, "trend_reference": 3.016718, "distance_from_trend": -0.204433, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.800689, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.143068, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.43661, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.300292, "excess_performance": -0.257088, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.204433, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039504, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.143068, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.203375, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.164366, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138133, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.300292, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.283813, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 152554764, "relative_activity": 0.989884, "balance": 0.283813, "dry_up": 1.097465, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065032, "annualized_volatility": 0.312382, "from_high_reference": -0.4926, "from_low_reference": 0.081081 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.016718, "fair_value_reference": 2.800689, "structural_low": 2.22, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.015619, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.012954, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.444445, "worst_return": -0.105791, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.026788, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013713, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.345979, "worst_return": -0.149606, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.096982, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.013772, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.206457, "worst_return": -0.298274, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 207399345.85, "trend": 3.069718, "fair_value": 2.838929, "relative_strength": -19.149812, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.123479, "energy": 88.976702, "activity_lines": [ 2.399612, 2.515272, 2.732862, 2.920917 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.31, "volume": 201498706, "typical_volume": 188731741.15, "trend": 3.058384, "fair_value": 2.828932, "relative_strength": -16.709459, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.066802, "energy": 89.937019, "activity_lines": [ 2.358667, 2.456054, 2.671902, 2.871903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.27, "volume": 172502816, "typical_volume": 174338351.4, "trend": 3.045051, "fair_value": 2.818617, "relative_strength": -18.900976, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.446523, "energy": 84.485495, "activity_lines": [ 2.322, 2.403764, 2.614848, 2.821039 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.41, "volume": 149981946, "typical_volume": 163237583.8, "trend": 3.035718, "fair_value": 2.809564, "relative_strength": -14.013635, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.986869, "energy": 65.232632, "activity_lines": [ 2.347333, 2.388603, 2.577221, 2.780068 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.4, "volume": 152554764, "typical_volume": 154113796.45, "trend": 3.016718, "fair_value": 2.800689, "relative_strength": -16.43661, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.606626, "energy": 62.504755, "activity_lines": [ 2.364, 2.378945, 2.543881, 2.739054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }