{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d1e71afc-5f06-4abb-930c-766bfea8b230", "symbol": "BONAS", "name": "Bon\u00e4sudden Holding AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -88.285, "architecture_energy": 94.947, "architecture_maturity": 31.37, "architecture_confidence": 79.88, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.35, "rotation_up": 8.84, "upward_expansion": 21.92, "deceleration": 37.02, "rotation_down": 87.72, "downward_expansion": 99.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 151.066667, 154.327273, 157.47619, 160.984946 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 148.0, "trend_reference": 167.633333, "distance_from_trend": -0.117121, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 159.346154, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.071204, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.877894, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.221053, "excess_performance": -0.282547, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.117121, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022736, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.071204, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084886, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.178779, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112297, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.221053, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.125325, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8137, "relative_activity": 10.550405, "balance": 0.125325, "dry_up": 2.717342, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023389, "annualized_volatility": 0.205934, "from_high_reference": -0.248731, "from_low_reference": 0.15625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 167.633333, "fair_value_reference": 159.346154, "structural_low": 143.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.003563, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013914, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.125786, "worst_return": -0.096774, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.045426, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.048426, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.259259, "worst_return": -0.225641, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.058065, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.062856, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.172414, "worst_return": -0.148962, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071038, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014184, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.034483, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": 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"activity_lines": [ 160.8, 161.072727, 163.138095, 167.694624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 159.0, "volume": 74, "typical_volume": 433.8, "trend": 171.866667, "fair_value": 159.365385, "relative_strength": -10.905045, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.508635, "energy": 42.836723, "activity_lines": [ 160.466667, 160.527273, 162.357143, 166.84086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 157.0, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 423.55, "trend": 171.433333, "fair_value": 159.435897, "relative_strength": -9.94443, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.901978, "energy": 62.799286, "activity_lines": [ 159.6, 159.763636, 161.52381, 165.88172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 156.0, "volume": 90, "typical_volume": 418.3, "trend": 170.966667, "fair_value": 159.49359, "relative_strength": -9.494669, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.15684, "energy": 73.423841, "activity_lines": [ 158.333333, 159.0, 160.742857, 164.886022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 151.0, "volume": 156, "typical_volume": 401.8, "trend": 170.366667, "fair_value": 159.474359, "relative_strength": -13.61675, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.190107, "energy": 93.507369, "activity_lines": [ 155.533333, 157.418182, 159.614286, 163.597849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 151.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 387.45, "trend": 169.133333, "fair_value": 159.416667, "relative_strength": -14.695309, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.623169, "energy": 92.362251, "activity_lines": [ 153.333333, 156.036364, 158.647619, 162.348387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 148.0, "volume": 8137, "typical_volume": 771.25, "trend": 167.633333, "fair_value": 159.346154, "relative_strength": -17.877894, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.284517, "energy": 94.947012, "activity_lines": [ 151.066667, 154.327273, 157.47619, 160.984946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }