{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d1ea607a-144a-4ba1-8199-a819f21b7211", "symbol": "300036", "name": "Beijing SuperMap Software Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.336, "architecture_energy": 62.01, "architecture_maturity": 98.956, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 28.8, "upward_expansion": 11.97, "deceleration": 60.94, "rotation_down": 52.94, "downward_expansion": 85.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.189333, 11.244532, 12.239209, 13.322297 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.68, "trend_reference": 14.993414, "distance_from_trend": -0.220991, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.59498, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.296173, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.364259, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.394191, "excess_performance": -0.401591, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.220991, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120024, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.296173, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200862, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.293643, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062473, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.394191, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.452906, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 69972637, "relative_activity": 1.557889, "balance": 0.452906, "dry_up": 1.387031, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083219, "annualized_volatility": 0.334095, "from_high_reference": -0.487719, "from_low_reference": 0.142857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.993414, "fair_value_reference": 16.59498, "structural_low": 10.22, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.026822, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.011761, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.342085, "worst_return": -0.225672, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.063054, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.069907, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.450151, "worst_return": -0.344613, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.165582, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.131637, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.279164, "worst_return": -0.26518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-41.188868, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.813698, "energy": 91.698975, "activity_lines": [ 11.590616, 12.387134, 13.675028, 14.793742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.25, "volume": 52783979, "typical_volume": 42856962.4, "trend": 15.843081, "fair_value": 16.882589, "relative_strength": -37.999451, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.347083, "energy": 85.997964, "activity_lines": [ 11.399333, 12.042577, 13.334921, 14.483737 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.59, "volume": 57636444, "typical_volume": 43512283.0, "trend": 15.635414, "fair_value": 16.799476, "relative_strength": -35.275271, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.155957, "energy": 84.075078, "activity_lines": [ 11.068667, 11.644623, 12.967291, 14.144828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.31, "volume": 58907382, "typical_volume": 42961972.45, "trend": 15.414414, "fair_value": 16.721128, "relative_strength": -36.616423, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.262442, "energy": 74.141448, "activity_lines": [ 10.748667, 11.288692, 12.611232, 13.801253 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.52, "volume": 62677719, "typical_volume": 43530907.7, "trend": 15.209414, "fair_value": 16.655567, "relative_strength": -27.395949, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.063213, "energy": 65.471937, "activity_lines": [ 10.952667, 11.227204, 12.404506, 13.550001 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.68, "volume": 69972637, "typical_volume": 44915043.85, "trend": 14.993414, "fair_value": 16.59498, "relative_strength": -29.364259, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.335528, "energy": 62.009645, "activity_lines": [ 11.189333, 11.244532, 12.239209, 13.322297 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }