{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d1eb17b1-ba29-434a-8782-4fa108138c98", "symbol": "CCL1N", "name": "Carnival Corporation Ltd.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 58.249, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 0.459, "architecture_energy": 5.945, "architecture_maturity": 20.894, "architecture_confidence": 55.639, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.12, "rotation_up": 16.0, "upward_expansion": 21.79, "deceleration": 62.42, "rotation_down": 41.23, "downward_expansion": 55.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 481.01475, 483.17344, 480.261351, 479.703445 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 514.0, "trend_reference": 486.118294, "distance_from_trend": 0.057356, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 409.378445, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.255562, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.336386, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.114945, "excess_performance": -0.060278, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.057356, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019598, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.255562, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094069, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.013364, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.18854, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.114945, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.434043, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1344, "relative_activity": 0.241081, "balance": 0.434043, "dry_up": 0.320051, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05866, "annualized_volatility": 0.436978, "from_high_reference": -0.157828, "from_low_reference": 0.242957 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 486.118294, "fair_value_reference": 409.378445, 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"stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.692848, "energy": 41.105593, "activity_lines": [ 461.519858, 477.38346, 474.920129, 478.503458 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 483.453095, "volume": 863, "typical_volume": 5576.35, "trend": 488.206538, "fair_value": 407.909379, "relative_strength": -7.513579, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.309501, "energy": 30.348346, "activity_lines": [ 465.62459, 477.78285, 476.266134, 478.039351 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 514.0, "volume": 1344, "typical_volume": 5574.9, "trend": 486.118294, "fair_value": 409.378445, "relative_strength": -1.336386, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.459271, "energy": 5.945309, "activity_lines": [ 481.01475, 483.17344, 480.261351, 479.703445 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }