{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d1eb868a-9a6a-4121-aac6-ae27863dedb1", "symbol": "2812", "name": "Samsung Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited- CSI China Dragon Internet ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.91, "architecture_energy": 22.093, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 47.85, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.78, "rotation_up": 42.23, "upward_expansion": 23.7, "deceleration": 41.33, "rotation_down": 14.92, "downward_expansion": 53.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.316, 10.971636, 11.10281, 11.381763 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.62, "trend_reference": 11.924833, "distance_from_trend": -0.025563, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.760401, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.011938, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.219334, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.132836, "excess_performance": -0.099254, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025563, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089105, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.011938, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065589, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112193, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022326, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.132836, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.842106, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 86872, "relative_activity": 1.055802, "balance": 0.842106, "dry_up": 1.217472, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047762, "annualized_volatility": 0.278522, "from_high_reference": -0.307921, "from_low_reference": 0.210417 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.924833, "fair_value_reference": 11.760401, "structural_low": 9.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.040197, "positive_rate": 0.448276, "directional_follow_through": 0.551724, "median_excess_return": -0.006353, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.257306, "worst_return": -0.237914, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.078099, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.001742, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.154807, "worst_return": -0.181682, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.053715, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.017104, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.215644, "worst_return": -0.277657, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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-62.12579, "energy": 55.949761, "activity_lines": [ 10.623333, 10.690091, 11.115214, 11.534462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.77, "volume": 49425, "typical_volume": 88127.25, "trend": 12.111833, "fair_value": 11.749183, "relative_strength": -16.059155, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.763197, "energy": 36.986173, "activity_lines": [ 10.729667, 10.669455, 11.052048, 11.440903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.59, "volume": 51400, "typical_volume": 89187.25, "trend": 12.014833, "fair_value": 11.753413, "relative_strength": -12.521486, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.526783, "energy": 23.789134, "activity_lines": [ 11.084, 10.818091, 11.074167, 11.407237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.62, "volume": 86872, "typical_volume": 82280.55, "trend": 11.924833, "fair_value": 11.760401, "relative_strength": -11.219334, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.909805, "energy": 22.092614, "activity_lines": [ 11.316, 10.971636, 11.10281, 11.381763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }