{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d1f281e4-b492-4414-8241-4dc125824ac3", "symbol": "2067", "name": "Chia Yi Steel Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.585, "architecture_energy": 59.845, "architecture_maturity": 62.996, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.69, "rotation_up": 25.3, "upward_expansion": 9.7, "deceleration": 46.52, "rotation_down": 59.56, "downward_expansion": 85.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.378667, 6.479091, 6.611952, 6.984043 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6.17, "trend_reference": 7.737667, "distance_from_trend": -0.202602, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.275577, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.399547, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -49.985892, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.417925, "excess_performance": -0.859297, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.202602, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138856, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.399547, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035322, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.499859, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040835, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.417925, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.446156, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 144000, "relative_activity": 0.674098, "balance": 0.446156, "dry_up": 0.34876, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066201, "annualized_volatility": 0.344802, "from_high_reference": -0.516078, "from_low_reference": 0.063793 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.737667, "fair_value_reference": 10.275577, "structural_low": 5.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.011538, "positive_rate": 0.419355, "directional_follow_through": 0.548387, "median_excess_return": -0.02401, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 0.206349, "worst_return": -0.330237, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.051852, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.110099, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.205788, "worst_return": -0.393171, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.085625, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.180262, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.283019, "worst_return": -0.268293, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.091991, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.295368, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.081301, "worst_return": -0.230244, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-06-30", "end": "2023-09-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.029963, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.034749, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.109375, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.086758, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.180488, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057862, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.367089, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044554, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072727, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069307, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014851, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.132967, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041718, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.160544, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 13.45, "volume": 142000, "typical_volume": 418000.0, "trend": 12.11, "fair_value": 12.199295, "relative_strength": 2.165496, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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"trend": 8.218667, "fair_value": 10.464744, "relative_strength": -44.289946, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.123622, "energy": 41.280189, "activity_lines": [ 6.656667, 6.624727, 6.849714, 7.409204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.57, "volume": 51007, "typical_volume": 254881.0, "trend": 8.105, "fair_value": 10.419679, "relative_strength": -46.31718, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.016031, "energy": 37.277312, "activity_lines": [ 6.638, 6.610545, 6.792143, 7.302839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.44, "volume": 73000, "typical_volume": 222820.6, "trend": 7.987667, "fair_value": 10.373782, "relative_strength": -46.075643, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.967201, "energy": 47.693288, "activity_lines": [ 6.578, 6.578182, 6.734238, 7.195419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.41, "volume": 30000, "typical_volume": 214168.85, "trend": 7.868667, "fair_value": 10.325769, "relative_strength": -46.93768, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.159741, "energy": 49.557453, "activity_lines": [ 6.505333, 6.549091, 6.680381, 7.093634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 6.17, "volume": 144000, "typical_volume": 213618.85, "trend": 7.737667, "fair_value": 10.275577, "relative_strength": -49.985892, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.584783, "energy": 59.845229, "activity_lines": [ 6.378667, 6.479091, 6.611952, 6.984043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }