{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d1f31943-8cb2-4798-9f75-55e27c8eb4c2", "symbol": "CENTEXT", "name": "Century Extrusions Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 64.727, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 21.502, "architecture_energy": 19.237, "architecture_maturity": 17.78, "architecture_confidence": 61.567, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.0, "rotation_up": 50.57, "upward_expansion": 23.66, "deceleration": 37.17, "rotation_down": 22.19, "downward_expansion": 31.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.602667, 20.099455, 20.102809, 20.120064 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 23.0, "trend_reference": 20.366667, "distance_from_trend": 0.129296, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.553718, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.067101, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.828888, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.064322, "excess_performance": 0.108031, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.129296, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053095, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.067101, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024823, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.048289, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056517, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.064322, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.77557, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6619461, "relative_activity": 9.351612, "balance": 3.77557, "dry_up": 2.715955, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065318, "annualized_volatility": 0.397463, "from_high_reference": -0.338129, "from_low_reference": 0.467773 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.366667, "fair_value_reference": 21.553718, "structural_low": 15.67, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.03574, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.023585, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.014778, "worst_return": -0.056955, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.017094, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.056923, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.402893, "worst_return": -0.1375, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.123676, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.112433, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.610837, "worst_return": -0.254167, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.116667, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.181928, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.116466, "worst_return": -0.219422, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.150116, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.171406, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.115771, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.159939, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044215, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063346, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.214157, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039069, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.124897, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"fair_value": 21.301282, "relative_strength": -13.496254, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.870656, "energy": 40.256753, "activity_lines": [ 19.450666, 19.637091, 19.939143, 20.159699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.41, "volume": 403583, "typical_volume": 488136.85, "trend": 20.507667, "fair_value": 21.359038, "relative_strength": -11.210083, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.519003, "energy": 37.878562, "activity_lines": [ 19.378666, 19.548727, 19.889714, 20.085161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.950001, "volume": 277197, "typical_volume": 415262.2, "trend": 20.431667, "fair_value": 21.415128, "relative_strength": -10.960839, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.696327, "energy": 44.975761, "activity_lines": [ 19.199333, 19.416909, 19.798238, 19.984667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.870001, "volume": 389623, "typical_volume": 407297.35, "trend": 20.339667, "fair_value": 21.477436, "relative_strength": -8.74901, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.045836, "energy": 33.090218, "activity_lines": [ 19.384, 19.471273, 19.803571, 19.94843 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.0, "volume": 6619461, "typical_volume": 707841.7, "trend": 20.366667, "fair_value": 21.553718, "relative_strength": 4.828888, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.502278, "energy": 19.236665, "activity_lines": [ 20.602667, 20.099455, 20.102809, 20.120064 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }