{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d20e5875-2eb1-405a-9872-762efaa3a9ee", "symbol": "NXTG", "name": "First Trust Indxx NextG ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.939, "architecture_energy": 29.948, "architecture_maturity": 73.19, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.63, "rotation_up": 25.94, "upward_expansion": 59.53, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 27.96, "downward_expansion": 23.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.603334, 20.852909, 20.520429, 19.543828 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 21.040001, "trend_reference": 18.258, "distance_from_trend": 0.152372, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.839872, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.638646, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.289776, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.354797, "excess_performance": 0.234376, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.152372, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.134907, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.638646, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043129, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.132898, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023145, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.354797, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 34.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 400, "relative_activity": 1.509434, "balance": 34.0, "dry_up": 2.075472, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041423, "annualized_volatility": 0.239561, "from_high_reference": -0.064057, "from_low_reference": 0.583145 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.258, "fair_value_reference": 12.839872, "structural_low": 14.91, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.029412, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.044353, "regime_survival": 0.307692, "best_return": 0.170951, "worst_return": -0.096642, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.050641, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": 0.060245, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.338046, "worst_return": -0.122581, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.060997, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.060499, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.517893, "worst_return": -0.011455, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.159302, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.03701, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.177533, "worst_return": -0.180985, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060172, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006318, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03523, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019759, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.004955, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011466, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.098143, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017799, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.164678, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011479, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001967, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.094473, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.151429, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030362, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 8.79, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 600.0, "trend": 8.812333, "fair_value": 8.26109, "relative_strength": 5.734211, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", 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"fair_value": 12.312564, "relative_strength": 27.747995, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.737706, "energy": 76.665194, "activity_lines": [ 21.77, 20.830909, 19.052381, 18.040645 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 21.610001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 215.0, "trend": 17.067667, "fair_value": 12.393654, "relative_strength": 24.00319, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.524352, "energy": 68.701435, "activity_lines": [ 21.811333, 21.141455, 19.414191, 18.348688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 20.82, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 215.0, "trend": 17.268, "fair_value": 12.469359, "relative_strength": 18.0756, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.456395, "energy": 66.484576, "activity_lines": [ 21.484, 21.225091, 19.67181, 18.590774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 21.25, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 190.0, "trend": 17.481667, "fair_value": 12.546667, "relative_strength": 19.631264, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.360299, "energy": 64.212347, "activity_lines": [ 21.336667, 21.326546, 19.946667, 18.847678 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.15, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 185.0, "trend": 17.673667, "fair_value": 12.617756, "relative_strength": 13.185714, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.354532, "energy": 49.695426, "activity_lines": [ 20.904667, 21.172909, 20.091333, 19.019828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.42, "volume": 1700, "typical_volume": 270.0, "trend": 17.868333, "fair_value": 12.689808, "relative_strength": 13.923388, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.226358, "energy": 38.015467, "activity_lines": [ 20.646667, 21.045455, 20.243048, 19.197011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.26, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 245.0, "trend": 18.056, "fair_value": 12.762051, "relative_strength": 13.101939, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.113002, "energy": 30.190134, "activity_lines": [ 20.45, 20.880364, 20.356381, 19.351312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.040001, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 265.0, "trend": 18.258, "fair_value": 12.839872, "relative_strength": 13.289776, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.939071, "energy": 29.947664, "activity_lines": [ 20.603334, 20.852909, 20.520429, 19.543828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }