{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d20ed38a-c5b1-4aae-b19e-945b3e9a55b5", "symbol": "MMLG", "name": "FIRST TR EXCHANGE TRADED FD VIII FIRST TR MULTI MANAGER LARGE GROWTH ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 50.759, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.142, "architecture_energy": 44.276, "architecture_maturity": 27.878, "architecture_confidence": 65.817, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.48, "rotation_up": 48.48, "upward_expansion": 76.51, "deceleration": 62.68, "rotation_down": 24.67, "downward_expansion": 5.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.7148, 36.491389, 36.257483, 35.535428 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 37.78, "trend_reference": 34.7985, "distance_from_trend": 0.085679, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.031203, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.258025, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.155681, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.137609, "excess_performance": 0.011984, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.085679, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01009, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.258025, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002981, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.041557, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021159, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.137609, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.444387, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19371, "relative_activity": 0.697955, "balance": 1.444387, "dry_up": 0.526123, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03091, "annualized_volatility": 0.197911, "from_high_reference": -0.006312, "from_low_reference": 0.256251 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.7985, "fair_value_reference": 30.031203, "structural_low": 30.0736, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.024638, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.007591, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.070307, "worst_return": -0.033166, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.076258, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.017342, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.179891, "worst_return": -0.155259, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.134646, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.033811, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.26924, "worst_return": 0.096677, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117979, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.069165, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.178164, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.070743, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.015642, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0851, "active": 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"activity_lines": [ 36.333707, 36.42504, 35.672655, 35.073662 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.224, "volume": 13509, "typical_volume": 29925.8, "trend": 34.70871, "fair_value": 29.745252, "relative_strength": -5.072325, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.529358, "energy": 29.287952, "activity_lines": [ 36.330167, 36.39144, 35.815774, 35.172854 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.486, "volume": 13897, "typical_volume": 29325.25, "trend": 34.688857, "fair_value": 29.829241, "relative_strength": -6.223613, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.931802, "energy": 28.295067, "activity_lines": [ 36.07256, 36.221425, 35.873492, 35.223002 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.4813, "volume": 11631, "typical_volume": 28305.0, "trend": 34.729833, "fair_value": 29.924537, "relative_strength": -4.41891, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.215983, "energy": 30.417794, "activity_lines": [ 36.21894, 36.241351, 36.014068, 35.338643 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.78, "volume": 19371, "typical_volume": 27753.95, "trend": 34.7985, "fair_value": 30.031203, "relative_strength": -4.155681, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.142048, "energy": 44.275738, "activity_lines": [ 36.7148, 36.491389, 36.257483, 35.535428 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }