{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d20f4612-646d-4338-93af-9dbfbf166e5e", "symbol": "ONDO", "name": "21Shares Ondo ETP", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 92.948, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.635, "architecture_energy": 42.489, "architecture_maturity": 12.51, "architecture_confidence": 75.542, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.86, "rotation_up": 54.04, "upward_expansion": 77.8, "deceleration": 54.92, "rotation_down": 15.98, "downward_expansion": 6.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.811493, 6.617815, 6.492788, 6.166411 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.3479, "trend_reference": 5.870207, "distance_from_trend": 0.081376, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.45136, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.490184, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.69142, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.307713, "excess_performance": 0.19105, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081376, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110898, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.490184, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047935, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.376914, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011826, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.307713, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.950737, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23988, "relative_activity": 0.370075, "balance": 2.950737, "dry_up": 1.187685, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.147098, "annualized_volatility": 0.889927, "from_high_reference": -0.690909, "from_low_reference": 0.491693 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.870207, "fair_value_reference": 12.45136, "structural_low": 4.418, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.114572, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2025-01-17", "close": 24.049999, "volume": 11108, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-24", "close": 28.65, "volume": 15928, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-31", 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null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.8406, "volume": 57067, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.1693, "volume": 210291, "typical_volume": 65092.95, "trend": 5.922327, "fair_value": 12.592194, "relative_strength": -32.177381, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.068838, "energy": 32.599144, "activity_lines": [ 6.624867, 6.537778, 6.339543, 6.050102 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.2881, "volume": 16594, "typical_volume": 64899.05, "trend": 5.910887, "fair_value": 12.526711, "relative_strength": -29.877562, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.260562, "energy": 44.821955, "activity_lines": [ 6.92758, 6.654644, 6.466561, 6.138216 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.3479, "volume": 23988, "typical_volume": 64819.35, "trend": 5.870207, "fair_value": 12.45136, "relative_strength": -37.69142, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.634849, "energy": 42.489127, "activity_lines": [ 6.811493, 6.617815, 6.492788, 6.166411 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }