{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d2161f6c-4c52-4fe6-83ae-d29cff270710", "symbol": "LEAD", "name": "WisdomTree Lead", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -76.213, "architecture_energy": 62.822, "architecture_maturity": 11.8, "architecture_confidence": 78.564, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.13, "rotation_up": 11.06, "upward_expansion": 10.39, "deceleration": 43.21, "rotation_down": 74.6, "downward_expansion": 86.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.765067, 13.882509, 14.083533, 14.141247 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 13.584, "trend_reference": 14.261333, "distance_from_trend": -0.047494, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.417769, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.172604, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.623959, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.048606, "excess_performance": -0.219498, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.047494, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024012, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.172604, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028602, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.20624, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044701, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.048606, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.347133, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6156, "relative_activity": 1.380099, "balance": 0.347133, "dry_up": 1.952226, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023183, "annualized_volatility": 0.111215, "from_high_reference": -0.139382, "from_low_reference": 0.006073 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.261333, "fair_value_reference": 16.417769, "structural_low": 13.502, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.003499, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": -0.001781, "regime_survival": 0.68, "best_return": 0.061943, "worst_return": -0.0474, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.016626, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.059832, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.142334, "worst_return": -0.045747, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.040744, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.096663, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.14551, "worst_return": -0.064325, "sufficient": true }, { 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-19.193922, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.844239, "energy": 64.571794, "activity_lines": [ 14.000267, 14.214982, 14.243648, 14.290348 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.822, "volume": 19334, "typical_volume": 4428.9, "trend": 14.382467, "fair_value": 16.491115, "relative_strength": -18.016858, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.448093, "energy": 74.360019, "activity_lines": [ 13.907333, 14.122545, 14.203038, 14.252675 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.0, "volume": 2941, "typical_volume": 4238.4, "trend": 14.3596, "fair_value": 16.467115, "relative_strength": -16.313414, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.213757, "energy": 70.134724, "activity_lines": [ 13.901867, 14.070873, 14.182143, 14.228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.752, "volume": 6401, "typical_volume": 4409.4, "trend": 14.321067, "fair_value": 16.442923, "relative_strength": -17.795878, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.41693, "energy": 65.041553, "activity_lines": [ 13.8512, 13.983164, 14.139438, 14.1888 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.584, "volume": 6156, "typical_volume": 4460.55, "trend": 14.261333, "fair_value": 16.417769, "relative_strength": -20.623959, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.213375, "energy": 62.822494, "activity_lines": [ 13.765067, 13.882509, 14.083533, 14.141247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }