{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d2161fdf-96dd-48ba-b88d-6e77f2b5e1e3", "symbol": "PNN", "name": "Pennon Group Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.171, "architecture_energy": 33.045, "architecture_maturity": 61.978, "architecture_confidence": 83.751, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.39, "rotation_up": 26.59, "upward_expansion": 17.1, "deceleration": 45.87, "rotation_down": 31.98, "downward_expansion": 62.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 467.387693, 464.747524, 482.137194, 498.136644 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 469.8, "trend_reference": 518.237364, "distance_from_trend": -0.093466, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 568.168069, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.173132, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.392052, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.145818, "excess_performance": -0.197053, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.093466, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035895, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.173132, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087266, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.153921, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136297, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.145818, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.704775, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8804494, "relative_activity": 1.427431, "balance": 0.704775, "dry_up": 1.320316, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058711, "annualized_volatility": 0.344582, "from_high_reference": -0.223471, "from_low_reference": 0.069361 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 518.237364, "fair_value_reference": 568.168069, "structural_low": 440.0654, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.009053, "positive_rate": 0.459459, "directional_follow_through": 0.540541, "median_excess_return": -0.033166, "regime_survival": 0.837838, "best_return": 0.123297, "worst_return": -0.188093, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.051142, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.050512, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.23114, "worst_return": -0.195876, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.122089, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.128586, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.072038, "worst_return": -0.188954, 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38.959233, "activity_lines": [ 465.742667, 465.131155, 485.151478, 501.431764 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 469.8, "volume": 8804494, "typical_volume": 6168068.35, "trend": 518.237364, "fair_value": 568.168069, "relative_strength": -15.392052, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.170658, "energy": 33.045305, "activity_lines": [ 467.387693, 464.747524, 482.137194, 498.136644 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }