{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d21c82ad-2252-4883-ab09-5f8667e36cff", "symbol": "4562", "name": "Ying Han Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.807, "architecture_energy": 47.616, "architecture_maturity": 12.063, "architecture_confidence": 88.683, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.22, "rotation_up": 12.46, "upward_expansion": 8.61, "deceleration": 41.62, "rotation_down": 61.24, "downward_expansion": 81.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.723332, 32.510909, 34.475, 34.643118 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 32.599998, "trend_reference": 35.273333, "distance_from_trend": -0.075789, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 41.090064, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.206621, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.494422, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.094445, "excess_performance": -0.535817, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.075789, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032945, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.206621, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.194211, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.404944, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013773, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.094445, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.919724, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2060325, "relative_activity": 0.370259, "balance": 0.919724, "dry_up": 0.294717, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.137447, "annualized_volatility": 0.538633, "from_high_reference": -0.432056, "from_low_reference": 0.214153 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.273333, "fair_value_reference": 41.090064, "structural_low": 26.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.005452, "positive_rate": 0.46875, "directional_follow_through": 0.53125, "median_excess_return": -0.019914, "regime_survival": 0.84375, "best_return": 0.139583, "worst_return": -0.183673, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.006369, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.06847, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.29, "worst_return": -0.171071, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.051282, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.163205, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.00974, "worst_return": -0.310983, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.193695, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.06548, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 3.394904, "worst_return": -0.384615, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009554, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025641, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.063333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 3.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.053097, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090076, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.042735, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022491, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.063636, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058163, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.09711, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.176402, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045181, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.124138, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 15.9, "volume": 269000, "typical_volume": 471696.65, "trend": 16.191667, "fair_value": 17.126953, "relative_strength": -7.408411, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", 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40.358333, "relative_strength": -47.682345, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.275336, "energy": 16.740098, "activity_lines": [ 35.796667, 37.358182, 36.132142, 36.086774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 36.650002, "volume": 5483633, "typical_volume": 5512180.15, "trend": 36.273333, "fair_value": 40.48718, "relative_strength": -43.606154, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.779891, "energy": 15.720534, "activity_lines": [ 35.596667, 37.237273, 36.245714, 36.112688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 34.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5478873.25, "trend": 35.983333, "fair_value": 40.598077, "relative_strength": -44.694364, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.604946, "energy": 18.825734, "activity_lines": [ 34.833334, 36.540909, 36.103809, 35.966021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.049999, "volume": 1686974, "typical_volume": 5481280.15, "trend": 35.849999, "fair_value": 40.697115, "relative_strength": -43.246161, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.28586, "energy": 33.544195, "activity_lines": [ 33.856667, 35.523636, 35.788333, 35.712258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.700001, "volume": 909579, "typical_volume": 5454400.25, "trend": 35.723333, "fair_value": 40.796474, "relative_strength": -43.720501, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.108145, "energy": 42.103788, "activity_lines": [ 33.013334, 34.545455, 35.465476, 35.444516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.0, "volume": 1176413, "typical_volume": 5445849.9, "trend": 35.491666, "fair_value": 40.879808, "relative_strength": -46.507203, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.965152, "energy": 64.601225, "activity_lines": [ 31.506667, 33.21, 34.894524, 35.010752 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.599998, "volume": 2413554, "typical_volume": 5502100.05, "trend": 35.406666, "fair_value": 40.984936, "relative_strength": -39.906709, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.546154, "energy": 56.144615, "activity_lines": [ 31.479999, 32.78, 34.684762, 34.824193 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 32.599998, "volume": 2060325, "typical_volume": 5564551.55, "trend": 35.273333, "fair_value": 41.090064, "relative_strength": -40.494422, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.806572, "energy": 47.61602, "activity_lines": [ 31.723332, 32.510909, 34.475, 34.643118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }