{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d224568a-30b5-4f6b-ba1a-799733b76bdb", "symbol": "CNCJO-B", "name": "Concejo AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 4.987, "architecture_energy": 11.423, "architecture_maturity": 8.351, "architecture_confidence": 73.318, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.01, "rotation_up": 20.4, "upward_expansion": 42.55, "deceleration": 77.13, "rotation_down": 36.92, "downward_expansion": 34.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.146667, 47.57091, 47.858224, 47.394826 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 46.700001, "trend_reference": 46.783499, "distance_from_trend": -0.001785, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.669198, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.23974, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.484282, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.025312, "excess_performance": -0.036183, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001785, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03259, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.23974, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110913, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094843, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116971, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.025312, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.739683, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28214, "relative_activity": 1.856111, "balance": 0.739683, "dry_up": 0.995701, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048524, "annualized_volatility": 0.185757, "from_high_reference": -0.079595, "from_low_reference": 0.34442 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.783499, "fair_value_reference": 37.669198, "structural_low": 41.041395, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.001684, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.017073, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.231884, "worst_return": -0.113433, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.043353, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.00916, "regime_survival": 0.181818, "best_return": 0.307631, "worst_return": -0.176651, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.017359, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.068726, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.883276, 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-4.16823, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.491361, "energy": 12.484851, "activity_lines": [ 47.840001, 48.165455, 47.936238, 47.311081 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.900002, "volume": 5355, "typical_volume": 13780.35, "trend": 46.77772, "fair_value": 37.382839, "relative_strength": -5.874214, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.985349, "energy": 12.380419, "activity_lines": [ 47.460001, 47.907273, 47.906921, 47.334519 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.799999, "volume": 19379, "typical_volume": 14537.7, "trend": 46.787515, "fair_value": 37.533414, "relative_strength": -5.497011, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.355389, "energy": 11.654898, "activity_lines": [ 47.473334, 47.838182, 47.945681, 47.400472 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.700001, "volume": 28214, "typical_volume": 15200.6, "trend": 46.783499, "fair_value": 37.669198, "relative_strength": -9.484282, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.987148, "energy": 11.422759, "activity_lines": [ 47.146667, 47.57091, 47.858224, 47.394826 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }