{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d22aedfb-0643-4b4c-aca1-75a25f341bd8", "symbol": "603109", "name": "Senci Electric Machinery Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.675, "architecture_energy": 55.753, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.945, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.08, "rotation_up": 26.71, "upward_expansion": 9.95, "deceleration": 55.56, "rotation_down": 50.16, "downward_expansion": 80.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.646667, 16.902685, 18.367012, 19.77203 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 17.030001, "trend_reference": 21.837538, "distance_from_trend": -0.22015, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.830482, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.141221, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.887938, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.350991, "excess_performance": -0.307787, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.22015, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121695, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.141221, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.298996, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.318879, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074473, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.350991, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.528323, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9437000, "relative_activity": 0.763105, "balance": 0.528323, "dry_up": 0.845574, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100601, "annualized_volatility": 0.473272, "from_high_reference": -0.588349, "from_low_reference": 0.102265 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.837538, "fair_value_reference": 19.830482, "structural_low": 15.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.025904, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.000493, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.346922, "worst_return": -0.374475, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.035758, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.002322, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.293388, "worst_return": -0.282609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.015082, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.043925, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.318732, "worst_return": -0.345498, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.176945, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.107753, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.043704, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.082336, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.248649, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": 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-31.543276, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.234916, "energy": 74.884966, "activity_lines": [ 17.012667, 17.798964, 19.487528, 20.928628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.65, "volume": 12058672, "typical_volume": 12384673.25, "trend": 22.429538, "fair_value": 19.83098, "relative_strength": -37.426821, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.672793, "energy": 69.325191, "activity_lines": [ 16.542, 17.25215, 18.991213, 20.47068 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.700001, "volume": 7676500, "typical_volume": 12281719.65, "trend": 22.129538, "fair_value": 19.827166, "relative_strength": -32.444041, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.592177, "energy": 63.807812, "activity_lines": [ 16.546, 17.009674, 18.643994, 20.101032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.030001, "volume": 9437000, "typical_volume": 12366576.4, "trend": 21.837538, "fair_value": 19.830482, "relative_strength": -31.887938, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.674591, "energy": 55.753337, "activity_lines": [ 16.646667, 16.902685, 18.367012, 19.77203 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }