{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d232a4e4-fd56-4f90-b364-921f45c78247", "symbol": "000692", "name": "Shenyang Huitian Thermal Power Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 57.726, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.835, "architecture_energy": 32.51, "architecture_maturity": 11.321, "architecture_confidence": 55.858, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.81, "rotation_up": 23.58, "upward_expansion": 13.18, "deceleration": 53.63, "rotation_down": 60.78, "downward_expansion": 52.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.907333, 3.966182, 4.264, 4.292452 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.33, "trend_reference": 4.233667, "distance_from_trend": 0.022754, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.402179, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.272714, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.192432, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.145503, "excess_performance": 0.138103, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022754, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028588, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.272714, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.3068, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.051924, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047635, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.145503, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.603675, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 107881544, "relative_activity": 1.120925, "balance": 0.603675, "dry_up": 0.823996, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100195, "annualized_volatility": 0.569543, "from_high_reference": -0.214156, "from_low_reference": 0.28869 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.233667, "fair_value_reference": 3.402179, "structural_low": 3.42, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.067157, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.058024, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.197531, "worst_return": -0.085399, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.216724, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.144169, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.459649, "worst_return": -0.029412, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.19334, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.016325, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.381579, "worst_return": -0.296703, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.082596, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02168, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008108, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090206, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.174419, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002364, "active": false 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-9.175115, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.289119, "energy": 61.591493, "activity_lines": [ 3.783333, 4.050182, 4.336429, 4.315806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.71, "volume": 55648748, "typical_volume": 94784639.35, "trend": 4.204, "fair_value": 3.391026, "relative_strength": -5.214926, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.346909, "energy": 64.146676, "activity_lines": [ 3.730667, 3.941636, 4.269476, 4.284323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.33, "volume": 107881544, "typical_volume": 96243311.85, "trend": 4.233667, "fair_value": 3.402179, "relative_strength": 5.192432, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.834675, "energy": 32.51013, "activity_lines": [ 3.907333, 3.966182, 4.264, 4.292452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }