{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d23862a7-55d9-4c66-9839-9dc3be519cb1", "symbol": "IOO", "name": "iShares Global 100 ETF (AU)", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 79.97, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 90.75, "architecture_energy": 73.416, "architecture_maturity": 28.285, "architecture_confidence": 86.549, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.83, "rotation_up": 68.14, "upward_expansion": 88.54, "deceleration": 51.92, "rotation_down": 22.8, "downward_expansion": 12.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 197.681331, 195.954977, 193.520963, 189.761991 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 203.149994, "trend_reference": 185.914712, "distance_from_trend": 0.092705, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 154.353123, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.316138, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.493949, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.137776, "excess_performance": 0.074071, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092705, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012617, "read": "Rising" 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167.479996, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.014516, "positive_rate": 0.756757, "directional_follow_through": 0.756757, "median_excess_return": 0.012596, "regime_survival": 0.783784, "best_return": 0.058333, "worst_return": -0.06975, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.028284, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.018866, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.124298, "worst_return": -0.115683, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.086813, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.062874, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.182872, "worst_return": -0.100805, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.1518, "energy": 58.418125, "activity_lines": [ 194.526553, 194.090073, 190.495268, 187.383376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 193.190002, "volume": 204785, "typical_volume": 148040.05, "trend": 185.145045, "fair_value": 153.236317, "relative_strength": 5.396625, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.355979, "energy": 57.353695, "activity_lines": [ 194.272696, 193.950384, 191.187357, 187.915588 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 196.029999, "volume": 184919, "typical_volume": 146772.9, "trend": 185.415712, "fair_value": 153.769525, "relative_strength": 4.302376, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.966418, "energy": 58.776264, "activity_lines": [ 195.014, 194.315967, 192.069732, 188.617844 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 203.149994, "volume": 183081, "typical_volume": 148055.3, "trend": 185.914712, "fair_value": 154.353123, "relative_strength": 4.493949, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.750405, "energy": 73.416397, "activity_lines": [ 197.681331, 195.954977, 193.520963, 189.761991 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }