{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d23ae2e2-5d6d-438e-9b78-bc3b4d1af854", "symbol": "PEAB4", "name": "Companhia de Participa\u00e7\u00f5es Alian\u00e7a da Bahia", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 76.162, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.384, "architecture_energy": 25.343, "architecture_maturity": 11.752, "architecture_confidence": 86.785, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.55, "rotation_up": 22.27, "upward_expansion": 6.73, "deceleration": 31.55, "rotation_down": 40.78, "downward_expansion": 68.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.323333, 39.355273, 39.394853, 39.544693 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 39.07, "trend_reference": 39.616757, "distance_from_trend": -0.013801, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 45.164293, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.134936, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.780563, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.038586, "excess_performance": 0.095634, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013801, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025842, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.134936, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029063, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.007806, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.128875, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.038586, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.58427, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8000, "relative_activity": 7.619048, "balance": 0.58427, "dry_up": 2.119048, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013871, "annualized_volatility": 0.185152, "from_high_reference": -0.054976, "from_low_reference": 0.245818 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.616757, "fair_value_reference": 45.164293, "structural_low": 37.648022, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.002286, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.018889, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.141046, "worst_return": -0.098443, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.067547, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.004043, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.144878, "worst_return": -0.114881, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.045452, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.067305, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.210451, "worst_return": -0.040616, "sufficient": true 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39.567662 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 39.869999, "volume": 1900, "typical_volume": 820.0, "trend": 39.235661, "fair_value": 46.230705, "relative_strength": -2.365045, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.151383, "energy": 19.056075, "activity_lines": [ 39.632667, 39.508442, 39.664697, 39.616058 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 39.0, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 785.0, "trend": 39.395824, "fair_value": 46.055232, "relative_strength": -4.359946, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.607897, "energy": 7.285391, "activity_lines": [ 39.456, 39.428083, 39.579614, 39.600854 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 39.0, "volume": 900, "typical_volume": 810.0, "trend": 39.445932, "fair_value": 45.879758, "relative_strength": -5.593681, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.036746, "energy": 20.684228, "activity_lines": [ 39.312667, 39.357002, 39.50489, 39.575317 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.5, "volume": 900, "typical_volume": 730.0, "trend": 39.496799, "fair_value": 45.70749, "relative_strength": -1.431279, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.280447, "energy": 16.236951, "activity_lines": [ 39.329333, 39.37894, 39.483499, 39.578805 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 685.0, "trend": 39.532914, "fair_value": 45.535222, "relative_strength": -1.239246, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.023581, "energy": 25.979911, "activity_lines": [ 39.358, 39.399273, 39.468022, 39.579012 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 685.0, "trend": 39.569029, "fair_value": 45.351136, "relative_strength": -3.062125, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.762487, "energy": 16.900813, "activity_lines": [ 39.4, 39.418, 39.452124, 39.576888 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.07, "volume": 8000, "typical_volume": 1050.0, "trend": 39.616757, "fair_value": 45.164293, "relative_strength": -0.780563, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.384336, "energy": 25.342965, "activity_lines": [ 39.323333, 39.355273, 39.394853, 39.544693 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }