{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d23fde1c-8da2-42f5-99e0-5d68928d1248", "symbol": "688425", "name": "China Railway Construction Heavy Industry Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.157, "architecture_energy": 48.974, "architecture_maturity": 99.299, "architecture_confidence": 65.248, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.48, "rotation_up": 27.35, "upward_expansion": 20.3, "deceleration": 66.99, "rotation_down": 44.71, "downward_expansion": 70.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.124791, 4.115933, 4.269358, 4.465041 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.16, "trend_reference": 4.732963, "distance_from_trend": -0.121058, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.355134, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.044805, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.713204, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.207619, "excess_performance": -0.164415, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.121058, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06574, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.044805, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130105, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.167132, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038195, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.207619, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.631698, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 102741136, "relative_activity": 1.092442, "balance": 0.631698, "dry_up": 1.202282, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046702, "annualized_volatility": 0.218346, "from_high_reference": -0.354037, "from_low_reference": 0.055691 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.732963, "fair_value_reference": 4.355134, "structural_low": 3.940546, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.014412, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": -0.016021, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.59854, "worst_return": -0.093946, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.024194, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.001714, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.547315, "worst_return": -0.189042, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.246232, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.122845, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.390917, "worst_return": -0.048387, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -17.938217, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.971508, "energy": 90.12059, "activity_lines": [ 4.045628, 4.148054, 4.385048, 4.591327 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.058174, "volume": 136212142, "typical_volume": 104737498.0, "trend": 4.797129, "fair_value": 4.358589, "relative_strength": -17.720205, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.364861, "energy": 79.037239, "activity_lines": [ 4.038638, 4.113982, 4.332037, 4.54152 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.215012, "volume": 111316576, "typical_volume": 98936241.9, "trend": 4.763296, "fair_value": 4.357249, "relative_strength": -14.045818, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.029068, "energy": 60.76545, "activity_lines": [ 4.097384, 4.118459, 4.300163, 4.503964 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.16, "volume": 102741136, "typical_volume": 94047206.45, "trend": 4.732963, "fair_value": 4.355134, "relative_strength": -16.713204, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.157107, "energy": 48.973803, "activity_lines": [ 4.124791, 4.115933, 4.269358, 4.465041 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }