{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d240a34f-15a1-4f7d-8ca8-ae1028acaa74", "symbol": "00671R", "name": "Fubon NASDAQ-100 -1X Inverse Index ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.561, "architecture_energy": 30.698, "architecture_maturity": 90.409, "architecture_confidence": 80.862, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.11, "rotation_up": 27.88, "upward_expansion": 21.76, "deceleration": 46.95, "rotation_down": 30.89, "downward_expansion": 60.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.489333, 2.474727, 2.49219, 2.576796 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.43, "trend_reference": 2.678, "distance_from_trend": -0.092606, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.565577, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.318483, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -37.696777, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.138298, "excess_performance": -0.51761, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.092606, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04754, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.318483, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014511, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.376968, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078228, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.138298, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.516005, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26004820, "relative_activity": 1.014768, "balance": 0.516005, "dry_up": 1.451243, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033871, "annualized_volatility": 0.199269, "from_high_reference": -0.233438, "from_low_reference": 0.034043 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.678, "fair_value_reference": 3.565577, "structural_low": 2.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": -0.018557, "positive_rate": 0.340909, "directional_follow_through": 0.659091, "median_excess_return": -0.029956, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 0.153209, "worst_return": -0.088725, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.035714, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.117425, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.099804, "worst_return": -0.151142, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.08812, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.162328, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.178082, "worst_return": -0.187879, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.203463, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028721, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.077121, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008876, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030211, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 2.53, "volume": 34452894, "typical_volume": 26254431.65, "trend": 2.714, "fair_value": 3.608013, "relative_strength": -35.969606, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.143642, "energy": 44.222864, "activity_lines": [ 2.472, 2.448727, 2.52919, 2.61729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.53, "volume": 36172200, "typical_volume": 26177961.1, "trend": 2.702, "fair_value": 3.594231, "relative_strength": -36.409843, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.878032, "energy": 35.499982, "activity_lines": [ 2.497333, 2.465273, 2.518524, 2.605419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.52, "volume": 52130398, "typical_volume": 25915079.6, "trend": 2.691667, "fair_value": 3.580128, "relative_strength": -34.848717, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.365845, "energy": 27.387997, "activity_lines": [ 2.51, 2.478909, 2.508619, 2.593677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.43, "volume": 26004820, "typical_volume": 25626360.6, "trend": 2.678, "fair_value": 3.565577, "relative_strength": -37.696777, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.561021, "energy": 30.697553, "activity_lines": [ 2.489333, 2.474727, 2.49219, 2.576796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }