{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d242cefe-490e-4f9c-9a61-516189a7f914", "symbol": "A", "name": "Areeya Property Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.797, "architecture_energy": 62.975, "architecture_maturity": 80.522, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.87, "rotation_up": 29.37, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 53.43, "rotation_down": 50.46, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.749333, 2.778909, 3.229714, 3.627054 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.76, "trend_reference": 4.085333, "distance_from_trend": -0.324413, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.771731, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.421594, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -46.803156, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.432099, "excess_performance": -0.624424, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.324413, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144134, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.421594, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.395224, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.468032, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.316028, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.432099, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.014118, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 300, "relative_activity": 0.136986, "balance": 0.014118, "dry_up": 0.068493, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116499, "annualized_volatility": 0.406947, "from_high_reference": -0.448, "from_low_reference": 0.022222 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.085333, "fair_value_reference": 4.771731, "structural_low": 2.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.347826, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": 0.010892, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.041667, "worst_return": -0.316038, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.006065, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.004441, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.008065, "worst_return": -0.438017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.010999, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.031551, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.004032, "worst_return": -0.012245, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 2985.0, "trend": 4.773333, "fair_value": 4.912051, "relative_strength": -42.239134, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -93.816209, "energy": 89.052176, "activity_lines": [ 4.146667, 4.443636, 4.627333, 4.698796 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 2.9, "volume": 5000, "typical_volume": 2200.0, "trend": 4.708667, "fair_value": 4.898269, "relative_strength": -49.652823, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -96.269068, "energy": 98.063305, "activity_lines": [ 3.652, 4.132364, 4.453714, 4.577935 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 2.9, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 2190.0, "trend": 4.643333, "fair_value": 4.884808, "relative_strength": -49.286246, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.213302, "energy": 96.773192, "activity_lines": [ 3.286667, 3.856364, 4.289143, 4.461247 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 2.9, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2165.0, "trend": 4.578, "fair_value": 4.871346, "relative_strength": -47.883128, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.78138, "energy": 92.841471, "activity_lines": [ 3.048, 3.615636, 4.133714, 4.348774 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 2.8, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 2185.0, "trend": 4.509333, "fair_value": 4.857244, "relative_strength": -47.934273, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.023287, "energy": 91.398974, "activity_lines": [ 2.896, 3.392, 3.977905, 4.234065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 2.9, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 2170.0, "trend": 4.444, "fair_value": 4.843782, "relative_strength": -47.648722, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.269089, "energy": 84.931158, "activity_lines": [ 2.873333, 3.223636, 3.841429, 4.130237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.72, "volume": 1100, "typical_volume": 2185.0, "trend": 4.372667, "fair_value": 4.829167, "relative_strength": -50.477882, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.733742, "energy": 69.245117, "activity_lines": [ 2.82, 3.057818, 3.697048, 4.019011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.72, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 2165.0, "trend": 4.301333, "fair_value": 4.814551, "relative_strength": -50.348019, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.838724, "energy": 67.259095, "activity_lines": [ 2.778667, 2.930545, 3.562762, 3.912387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.72, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2165.0, "trend": 4.225333, "fair_value": 4.800064, "relative_strength": -49.823238, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.421749, "energy": 65.084815, "activity_lines": [ 2.749333, 2.841091, 3.438571, 3.810366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.78, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 2175.0, "trend": 4.156, "fair_value": 4.785962, "relative_strength": -47.449221, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.631797, "energy": 62.509883, "activity_lines": [ 2.752, 2.798545, 3.33019, 3.717118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.76, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 2190.0, "trend": 4.085333, "fair_value": 4.771731, "relative_strength": -46.803156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.797039, "energy": 62.974759, "activity_lines": [ 2.749333, 2.778909, 3.229714, 3.627054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }