{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d2467360-2d9b-4715-acf0-15cd4ec0fc17", "symbol": "ALECP", "name": "EuropaCorp", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.577, "architecture_energy": 55.772, "architecture_maturity": 92.929, "architecture_confidence": 86.935, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.06, "rotation_up": 27.02, "upward_expansion": 10.12, "deceleration": 60.83, "rotation_down": 47.02, "downward_expansion": 78.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.282733, 0.284691, 0.313124, 0.334112 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.289, "trend_reference": 0.363667, "distance_from_trend": -0.205316, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.406013, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.2882, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.2931, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.371739, "excess_performance": -0.425051, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.205316, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092044, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.2882, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178468, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.292931, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.191577, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.371739, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.580514, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28470, "relative_activity": 0.491158, "balance": 0.580514, "dry_up": 1.005373, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095821, "annualized_volatility": 0.409076, "from_high_reference": -0.442085, "from_low_reference": 0.204167 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.363667, "fair_value_reference": 0.406013, "structural_low": 0.24, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.005222, "positive_rate": 0.482759, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": -0.023425, "regime_survival": 0.724138, "best_return": 0.376923, "worst_return": -0.225589, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.038356, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": 0.040655, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.212766, "worst_return": -0.287179, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.102773, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.018868, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.353116, "worst_return": -0.234615, "sufficient": true }, { 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0.289467, 0.320127, 0.345848, 0.364981 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.292, "volume": 90948, "typical_volume": 60235.2, "trend": 0.382333, "fair_value": 0.412199, "relative_strength": -28.141768, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.230574, "energy": 88.310017, "activity_lines": [ 0.283533, 0.311491, 0.338986, 0.358933 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.278, "volume": 66309, "typical_volume": 57643.6, "trend": 0.3791, "fair_value": 0.410647, "relative_strength": -30.905274, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.617019, "energy": 86.078291, "activity_lines": [ 0.277867, 0.301764, 0.331367, 0.352202 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.276, "volume": 119433, "typical_volume": 60737.5, "trend": 0.376133, "fair_value": 0.409083, "relative_strength": -31.003634, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.695401, "energy": 65.880246, "activity_lines": [ 0.276933, 0.293473, 0.324195, 0.345551 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.28, "volume": 18894, "typical_volume": 57941.55, "trend": 0.370167, "fair_value": 0.407494, "relative_strength": -30.407113, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.092077, "energy": 61.234372, "activity_lines": [ 0.2792, 0.287545, 0.31799, 0.339348 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.289, "volume": 28470, "typical_volume": 57965.05, "trend": 0.363667, "fair_value": 0.406013, "relative_strength": -29.2931, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.576567, "energy": 55.771521, "activity_lines": [ 0.282733, 0.284691, 0.313124, 0.334112 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }