{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d24f662f-5ff1-41c0-a619-5a993f3cb360", "symbol": "1104", "name": "Universal Cement Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 93.5, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.337, "architecture_energy": 28.986, "architecture_maturity": 13.971, "architecture_confidence": 88.41, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.72, "rotation_up": 14.16, "upward_expansion": 9.84, "deceleration": 51.74, "rotation_down": 54.9, "downward_expansion": 73.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.616667, 26.764815, 26.746065, 26.877638 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 26.450001, "trend_reference": 27.118077, "distance_from_trend": -0.024636, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.228911, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.008429, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -32.605161, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.042182, "excess_performance": -0.483554, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024636, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020204, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.008429, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019737, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.326052, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050395, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.042182, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.48448, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3020700, "relative_activity": 0.793806, "balance": 0.48448, "dry_up": 0.852949, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031559, "annualized_volatility": 0.163794, "from_high_reference": -0.139859, "from_low_reference": 0.062242 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.118077, "fair_value_reference": 26.228911, "structural_low": 25.274612, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.01432, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": 0.011795, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.087687, "worst_return": -0.027223, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.017139, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.047812, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.052381, "worst_return": -0.06043, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.034565, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.016618, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.058871, "worst_return": -0.01948, "sufficient": 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.335977, "energy": 16.901978, "activity_lines": [ 26.839999, 26.919128, 26.813382, 26.963672 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.6, "volume": 2754817, "typical_volume": 3781047.25, "trend": 27.169387, "fair_value": 26.21324, "relative_strength": -30.522115, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.690147, "energy": 21.515101, "activity_lines": [ 26.726666, 26.863828, 26.785119, 26.92405 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 26.450001, "volume": 3020700, "typical_volume": 3805339.9, "trend": 27.118077, "fair_value": 26.228911, "relative_strength": -32.605161, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.337353, "energy": 28.985945, "activity_lines": [ 26.616667, 26.764815, 26.746065, 26.877638 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }