{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "d25080f4-3d23-4728-b23c-96883f4c03c9",
    "symbol": "WAGA",
    "name": "Waga Energy SA",
    "exchange": "PAR",
    "country": "FR",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FCHI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 82.093,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 20.792,
    "architecture_energy": 7.976,
    "architecture_maturity": 35.393,
    "architecture_confidence": 57.671,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 60.02,
        "rotation_up": 40.25,
        "upward_expansion": 52.69,
        "deceleration": 67.31,
        "rotation_down": 20.82,
        "downward_expansion": 26.02
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        23.163333,
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        23.125952,
        23.126989
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Stable",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 23.1,
    "trend_reference": 23.056667,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.001879,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 19.844872,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.164029,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -4.597179,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.05,
    "excess_performance": -0.003311,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.001879,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.011701,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.164029,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.04794,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.045972,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.057518,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.05,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.614597,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 4347,
      "relative_activity": 1.451467,
      "balance": 2.614597,
      "dry_up": 1.252296,
      "accumulation_observations": 5,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.030969,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.120947,
      "from_high_reference": -0.057143,
      "from_low_reference": 0.092199
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 23.056667,
      "fair_value_reference": 19.844872,
      "structural_low": 21.299999,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.002502,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.010106,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.019824,
        "worst_return": -0.013043,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.021752,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.018574,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.032634,
        "worst_return": 0.01087,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.104895,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.008924,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.104895,
        "worst_return": 0.104895,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 0,
        "median_return": null,
        "positive_rate": null,
        "directional_follow_through": null,
        "median_excess_return": null,
        "regime_survival": null,
        "best_return": null,
        "worst_return": null,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2024-02-23",
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        "return": -0.230769,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-03-01",
        "end": "2024-10-11",
        "tenure": "Extended",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "end": "2025-02-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.121437,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-02-14",
        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.074126,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "end": "2025-06-13",
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        "return": 0.238532,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-08-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2025-09-05",
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        "active": false
      },
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 30.536322,
        "energy": 14.489166,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.176667,
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          23.149286,
          22.958387
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 22.549999,
        "volume": 4480,
        "typical_volume": 21273.85,
        "trend": 22.718333,
        "fair_value": 20.204487,
        "relative_strength": 1.154648,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 13.845986,
        "energy": 12.22987,
        "activity_lines": [
          22.94,
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          22.949355
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "volume": 5433,
        "typical_volume": 20949.65,
        "trend": 22.736667,
        "fair_value": 20.203526,
        "relative_strength": 2.706828,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 5.172763,
        "energy": 12.258831,
        "activity_lines": [
          22.783333,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 22.700001,
        "volume": 3515,
        "typical_volume": 20524.0,
        "trend": 22.756667,
        "fair_value": 20.18141,
        "relative_strength": 0.577672,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -11.036178,
        "energy": 14.574672,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 23.200001,
        "volume": 3410,
        "typical_volume": 7416.65,
        "trend": 22.79,
        "fair_value": 20.161218,
        "relative_strength": 1.533109,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "direction": 14.116415,
        "energy": 13.575915,
        "activity_lines": [
          22.853334,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 23.299999,
        "volume": 1156,
        "typical_volume": 7127.65,
        "trend": 22.826667,
        "fair_value": 20.140385,
        "relative_strength": 1.62038,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 31.197421,
        "energy": 12.680749,
        "activity_lines": [
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          23.08,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 23.4,
        "volume": 786,
        "typical_volume": 6597.45,
        "trend": 22.861667,
        "fair_value": 20.123077,
        "relative_strength": 0.441657,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 21.000101,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 23.15,
        "volume": 281,
        "typical_volume": 5905.15,
        "trend": 22.9,
        "fair_value": 20.079487,
        "relative_strength": -1.37679,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 22.808916,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 23.0,
        "volume": 545,
        "typical_volume": 5742.85,
        "trend": 22.928333,
        "fair_value": 20.042308,
        "relative_strength": -1.525572,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 29.94992,
        "energy": 18.483345,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.173333,
          23.065455,
          23.121905,
          23.062903
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 23.200001,
        "volume": 631,
        "typical_volume": 5331.5,
        "trend": 22.955,
        "fair_value": 20.019231,
        "relative_strength": -2.031719,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 35.091716,
        "energy": 18.854236,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.17,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 23.299999,
        "volume": 3464,
        "typical_volume": 5271.7,
        "trend": 23.011667,
        "fair_value": 19.983974,
        "relative_strength": 0.387883,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.267247,
        "energy": 19.841127,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.2,
          23.152727,
          23.143095,
          23.102688
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 23.049999,
        "volume": 1672,
        "typical_volume": 4101.0,
        "trend": 23.061667,
        "fair_value": 19.947436,
        "relative_strength": -0.676217,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 27.585305,
        "energy": 10.922976,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.146666,
          23.154545,
          23.125952,
          23.105161
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 23.25,
        "volume": 6360,
        "typical_volume": 3717.85,
        "trend": 23.08,
        "fair_value": 19.911859,
        "relative_strength": -0.228721,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 33.065971,
        "energy": 14.427384,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.183333,
          23.183636,
          23.130952,
          23.117312
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 23.200001,
        "volume": 2623,
        "typical_volume": 3121.0,
        "trend": 23.07,
        "fair_value": 19.882692,
        "relative_strength": -1.962611,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 41.225593,
        "energy": 17.01248,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.196667,
          23.191818,
          23.132857,
          23.125054
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 23.1,
        "volume": 4347,
        "typical_volume": 2994.9,
        "trend": 23.056667,
        "fair_value": 19.844872,
        "relative_strength": -4.597179,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 20.792419,
        "energy": 7.975585,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.163333,
          23.172727,
          23.125952,
          23.126989
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}