{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d25f9a38-5eb5-4479-8c4e-917319b45d35", "symbol": "AC", "name": "Air Canada", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.881, "architecture_energy": 66.058, "architecture_maturity": 65.631, "architecture_confidence": 85.227, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.82, "rotation_up": 62.09, "upward_expansion": 84.29, "deceleration": 67.77, "rotation_down": 23.42, "downward_expansion": 10.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.92, 24.397091, 22.889429, 21.80757 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 26.58, "trend_reference": 20.743333, "distance_from_trend": 0.281376, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.049551, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.395308, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 18.735029, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.256144, "excess_performance": 0.135722, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.281376, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083486, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.395308, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.346363, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.18735, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.264208, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.256144, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.062987, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8882800, "relative_activity": 0.803961, "balance": 2.062987, "dry_up": 0.932926, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058315, "annualized_volatility": 0.412751, "from_high_reference": -0.007097, "from_low_reference": 0.615805 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.743333, "fair_value_reference": 19.049551, "structural_low": 16.450001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.038466, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.040732, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.175348, "worst_return": -0.175464, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.033621, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.075003, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.048343, "worst_return": -0.304132, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.071467, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.192477, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.288809, "worst_return": -0.252101, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.336024, "energy": 92.177699, "activity_lines": [ 23.129333, 21.932545, 20.522857, 20.119548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 24.610001, "volume": 519200, "typical_volume": 12670900.0, "trend": 19.889667, "fair_value": 19.044551, "relative_strength": 12.178271, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.937641, "energy": 92.546462, "activity_lines": [ 23.786, 22.597818, 20.978667, 20.436409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 24.450001, "volume": 14254500, "typical_volume": 12772240.0, "trend": 20.089667, "fair_value": 19.042628, "relative_strength": 11.779061, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.595336, "energy": 89.68537, "activity_lines": [ 24.22, 23.123818, 21.398476, 20.730624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.58, "volume": 9205000, "typical_volume": 12497985.0, "trend": 20.193, "fair_value": 19.022115, "relative_strength": 3.763865, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.981175, "energy": 80.805735, "activity_lines": [ 23.828, 23.197273, 21.623905, 20.89129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.27, "volume": 8286400, "typical_volume": 11820270.0, "trend": 20.319, "fair_value": 19.014808, "relative_strength": 7.088894, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.370388, "energy": 56.253753, "activity_lines": [ 23.594, 23.349637, 21.905762, 21.089806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.370001, "volume": 14856600, "typical_volume": 11489575.0, "trend": 20.505667, "fair_value": 19.030449, "relative_strength": 17.172763, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.730306, "energy": 59.015358, "activity_lines": [ 24.078667, 23.809455, 22.360952, 21.415677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.58, "volume": 8882800, "typical_volume": 11048790.0, "trend": 20.743333, "fair_value": 19.049551, "relative_strength": 18.735029, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.880697, "energy": 66.057699, "activity_lines": [ 24.92, 24.397091, 22.889429, 21.80757 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }