{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "d25feb24-0eb8-4cdd-8c47-3dfb530657a9",
    "symbol": "HBLK",
    "name": "Blockchain Technologies ETF",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 0.157,
    "architecture_energy": 20.127,
    "architecture_maturity": 49.841,
    "architecture_confidence": 75.951,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 58.77,
        "rotation_up": 14.25,
        "upward_expansion": 41.97,
        "deceleration": 86.36,
        "rotation_down": 45.22,
        "downward_expansion": 35.97
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        24.048,
        24.906727,
        25.315238,
        24.490215
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 23.799999,
    "trend_reference": 23.553667,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.010458,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 18.490385,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.287155,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -11.994587,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.19418,
    "excess_performance": 0.073758,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.010458,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.028185,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.287155,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.224111,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.119946,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.165983,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.19418,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.738189,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 4500,
      "relative_activity": 0.464636,
      "balance": 0.738189,
      "dry_up": 0.887971,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.083678,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.42275,
      "from_high_reference": -0.278351,
      "from_low_reference": 0.3171
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 23.553667,
      "fair_value_reference": 18.490385,
      "structural_low": 18.370001,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.015988,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.012267,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.240892,
        "worst_return": -0.187848,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.066313,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.091366,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.100372,
        "worst_return": -0.30268,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.11263,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": -0.000915,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.528122,
        "worst_return": -0.331897,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.248029,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.068722,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.49857,
        "worst_return": -0.596003,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2024-10-25",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.097624,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-11-01",
        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.15712,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.127845,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.304446,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.107738,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.057256,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-08",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.084429,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-01-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.011591,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-01-23",
        "end": "2026-02-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.154138,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-02-27",
        "end": "2026-05-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.142157,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "return": 0.100844,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "return": -0.00156,
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "start": "2026-07-17",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.011475,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 10215.0,
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          22.056742
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 26.08,
        "volume": 26800,
        "typical_volume": 14170.0,
        "trend": 23.2115,
        "fair_value": 17.257051,
        "relative_strength": 4.603732,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 45.723199,
        "energy": 58.919091,
        "activity_lines": [
          24.238666,
          22.744182,
          21.954476,
          22.233376
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 25.870001,
        "volume": 20700,
        "typical_volume": 14255.0,
        "trend": 23.082833,
        "fair_value": 17.359487,
        "relative_strength": 4.25893,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 40.699117,
        "energy": 68.369773,
        "activity_lines": [
          24.994667,
          23.474182,
          22.329381,
          22.404893
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 26.540001,
        "volume": 7600,
        "typical_volume": 13695.0,
        "trend": 22.944334,
        "fair_value": 17.466539,
        "relative_strength": 4.623809,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 51.227997,
        "energy": 73.387901,
        "activity_lines": [
          25.644,
          24.230364,
          22.752048,
          22.627936
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 28.709999,
        "volume": 17100,
        "typical_volume": 13265.0,
        "trend": 22.908,
        "fair_value": 17.585513,
        "relative_strength": 11.562709,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 88.513457,
        "energy": 92.050057,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.852,
          25.278727,
          23.362286,
          22.999914
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 25.639999,
        "volume": 4100,
        "typical_volume": 12585.0,
        "trend": 22.842333,
        "fair_value": 17.688205,
        "relative_strength": 0.427591,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.992098,
        "energy": 75.557328,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.698666,
          25.621091,
          23.656524,
          23.176172
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 27.17,
        "volume": 2000,
        "typical_volume": 12140.0,
        "trend": 22.977333,
        "fair_value": 17.798782,
        "relative_strength": 4.433738,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.684929,
        "energy": 67.002183,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.899333,
          26.122182,
          24.094905,
          23.455376
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 28.889999,
        "volume": 2700,
        "typical_volume": 11170.0,
        "trend": 23.225333,
        "fair_value": 17.918013,
        "relative_strength": 10.435083,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 79.739919,
        "energy": 72.98512,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.600666,
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          24.680476,
          23.836839
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 27.0,
        "volume": 600,
        "typical_volume": 10495.0,
        "trend": 23.291333,
        "fair_value": 18.020577,
        "relative_strength": 2.979951,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.015764,
        "energy": 52.172036,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.470666,
          26.977636,
          25.053571,
          24.080366
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 25.549999,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 9830.0,
        "trend": 23.342333,
        "fair_value": 18.109039,
        "relative_strength": -3.229687,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 49.424988,
        "energy": 41.638423,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.826666,
          26.844181,
          25.254905,
          24.226086
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 25.6,
        "volume": 3600,
        "typical_volume": 9585.0,
        "trend": 23.413,
        "fair_value": 18.18968,
        "relative_strength": -3.14758,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 44.511651,
        "energy": 33.798848,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.41,
          26.685091,
          25.43419,
          24.371742
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 23.530001,
        "volume": 21200,
        "typical_volume": 10350.0,
        "trend": 23.439,
        "fair_value": 18.260513,
        "relative_strength": -10.612667,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 22.040603,
        "energy": 21.999614,
        "activity_lines": [
          25.306,
          26.107818,
          25.389809,
          24.37929
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 24.620001,
        "volume": 4500,
        "typical_volume": 10310.0,
        "trend": 23.509667,
        "fair_value": 18.337564,
        "relative_strength": -6.574011,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 24.846203,
        "energy": 25.204704,
        "activity_lines": [
          24.808,
          25.775091,
          25.434333,
          24.455484
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 23.799999,
        "volume": 4200,
        "typical_volume": 9960.0,
        "trend": 23.552,
        "fair_value": 18.411346,
        "relative_strength": -9.245886,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 2.459457,
        "energy": 17.644508,
        "activity_lines": [
          24.321333,
          25.316,
          25.381667,
          24.474215
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 23.799999,
        "volume": 4500,
        "typical_volume": 9685.0,
        "trend": 23.553667,
        "fair_value": 18.490385,
        "relative_strength": -11.994587,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 0.157352,
        "energy": 20.127358,
        "activity_lines": [
          24.048,
          24.906727,
          25.315238,
          24.490215
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}