{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d2624b4e-6ad2-4c50-b280-f24d3a22c319", "symbol": "MSTB", "name": "LHA MARKET STATE TACTICAL BETA ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 75.197, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.974, "architecture_energy": 55.256, "architecture_maturity": 15.804, "architecture_confidence": 84.236, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.21, "rotation_up": 51.83, "upward_expansion": 80.61, "deceleration": 53.9, "rotation_down": 23.52, "downward_expansion": 9.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.262647, 42.998602, 42.721762, 42.070796 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 44.3793, "trend_reference": 41.32495, "distance_from_trend": 0.073911, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.707672, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.27866, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.429636, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.101338, "excess_performance": -0.024287, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073911, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024322, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.27866, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00244, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024296, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002057, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.101338, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.692061, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 69437, "relative_activity": 1.632258, "balance": 3.692061, "dry_up": 1.111842, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024947, "annualized_volatility": 0.121454, "from_high_reference": -0.025487, "from_low_reference": 0.192083 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.32495, "fair_value_reference": 34.707672, "structural_low": 37.46, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.011995, "positive_rate": 0.793103, "directional_follow_through": 0.793103, "median_excess_return": -0.00183, "regime_survival": 0.793103, "best_return": 0.043352, "worst_return": -0.071359, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.032785, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.014607, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.101671, "worst_return": -0.098162, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.079038, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.020872, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.1314, "worst_return": -0.024782, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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42.548793, 42.685098, 41.93797, 41.396899 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 43.334, "volume": 73786, "typical_volume": 38427.8, "trend": 40.941435, "fair_value": 34.303614, "relative_strength": -2.808489, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.22822, "energy": 33.365955, "activity_lines": [ 42.803173, 42.803711, 42.144464, 41.558896 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 42.6768, "volume": 24110, "typical_volume": 37633.15, "trend": 41.038207, "fair_value": 34.40132, "relative_strength": -2.678989, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.099203, "energy": 31.976723, "activity_lines": [ 42.785427, 42.777809, 42.273206, 41.670855 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.2852, "volume": 49272, "typical_volume": 39021.55, "trend": 41.101567, "fair_value": 34.495184, "relative_strength": -2.89547, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.781088, "energy": 31.549775, "activity_lines": [ 42.63906, 42.681684, 42.352049, 41.751306 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.875, "volume": 46374, "typical_volume": 40153.9, "trend": 41.20064, "fair_value": 34.595559, "relative_strength": -2.50737, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.906954, "energy": 35.463206, "activity_lines": [ 42.725613, 42.702878, 42.474253, 41.865721 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.3793, "volume": 69437, "typical_volume": 42540.45, "trend": 41.32495, "fair_value": 34.707672, "relative_strength": -2.429636, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.97353, "energy": 55.256037, "activity_lines": [ 43.262647, 42.998602, 42.721762, 42.070796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }