{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d26290cf-2828-47ea-9e9f-39ebdc004c10", "symbol": "XDPG", "name": "Xtrackers S&P 500 UCITS ETF 2C - GBP Hedged", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.044, "architecture_energy": 60.159, "architecture_maturity": 58.873, "architecture_confidence": 72.516, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.87, "rotation_up": 53.33, "upward_expansion": 80.1, "deceleration": 67.96, "rotation_down": 27.3, "downward_expansion": 9.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 12642.866667, 12576.490909, 12464.383333, 12224.962366 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 12977.0, "trend_reference": 11953.883333, "distance_from_trend": 0.085589, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9822.36141, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.321169, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.964118, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.125206, "excess_performance": 0.073971, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.085589, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033675, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.321169, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005436, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.029641, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023177, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.125206, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.870431, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23724, "relative_activity": 0.72617, "balance": 1.870431, "dry_up": 0.844061, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019299, "annualized_volatility": 0.128624, "from_high_reference": -0.004373, "from_low_reference": 0.226096 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11953.883333, "fair_value_reference": 9822.36141, "structural_low": 10662.349609, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.015168, "positive_rate": 0.736842, "directional_follow_through": 0.736842, "median_excess_return": 0.007495, "regime_survival": 0.815789, "best_return": 0.064078, "worst_return": -0.084929, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.041042, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.013998, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.125099, "worst_return": -0.069216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.075221, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.031873, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.171275, "worst_return": -0.163243, 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"2026-08-07", "close": 12977.0, "volume": 23724, "typical_volume": 32670.05, "trend": 11953.883333, "fair_value": 9822.36141, "relative_strength": 2.964118, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.043787, "energy": 60.158703, "activity_lines": [ 12642.866667, 12576.490909, 12464.383333, 12224.962366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }